The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1984

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 15

Wilder than 15% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 15.2 expected

  • Biggest shockMaryland over West Virginia19% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upCal State Fullerton over Colorado State25% chance · won 34-22
  • Runner-upDrake over New Mexico State26% chance · won 35-28

Upsets

Sat, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
Louisiana@Alabama
21%
79%
14
37
✓
ALA −13.7
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Arkansas
30%
70%
9
18
✓
ARK −9.0
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Army
78%
22%
24
24
✓
TENN −12.7
–
–
Final
#19Southern Miss@#12Auburn
37%
63%
12
35
✓
AUB −5.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Boston College
40%
60%
20
52
✓
BC −4.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)
53%
47%
41
10
✓
BGSU −1.3
–
–
Final
#3BYU@Hawaii
89%
11%
18
13
✓
BYU −20.7
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Colorado State
25%
75%
34
22
✗
CSU −11.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
30%
70%
19
38
✓
CMU −8.9
–
–
Final
#6Florida State@#2Miami (FL)
40%
60%
38
3
✗
MIA −4.5
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Fresno State
18%
82%
17
20
✓
FRES −15.4
–
–
Final
#4Clemson@#14Georgia
54%
46%
23
26
✗
CLEM −1.8
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Illinois
32%
68%
7
40
✓
ILL −7.9
–
–
Final
#16Kentucky@Tulane
85%
15%
30
26
✓
UK −16.9
–
–
Final
#24Arizona@LSUUpset
45%
55%
26
27
✓
LSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@#13West VirginiaUpset
19%
81%
20
17
✗
WVU −14.9
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Memphis
26%
74%
7
47
✓
MEM −10.6
–
–
Final
#20Wisconsin@#15Michigan
34%
66%
14
20
✓
MICH −6.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Missouri
42%
58%
30
47
✓
MIZ −3.3
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@UCLA
78%
22%
42
3
✓
NEB −12.5
–
–
Final
Wichita State@UNLV
3.2%
97%
21
38
✓
UNLV −30.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@New Mexico
33%
67%
24
29
✓
UNM −7.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Northern Illinois
28%
72%
10
24
✓
NIU −10.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Northwestern
41%
59%
37
40
✓
NU −3.8
–
–
Final
Colorado@#23Notre Dame
20%
80%
14
55
✓
ND −14.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Eastern Michigan
57%
43%
16
13
✓
OHIO −2.9
–
–
Final
#17Iowa@#8Ohio State
36%
64%
26
45
✓
OSU −6.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@#7Oklahoma
15%
85%
15
34
✓
OU −17.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#5Oklahoma State
11%
89%
16
19
✓
OKST −20.5
–
–
Final
Oregon@California
39%
61%
21
14
✗
CAL −4.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Oregon State
54%
46%
14
41
✗
WYO −1.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
23%
77%
10
34
✓
PUR −12.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
29%
71%
19
0
✗
SYR −9.4
–
–
Final
Duke@South Carolina
45%
55%
0
21
✓
SC −2.2
–
–
Final
#21USC@Arizona State
47%
53%
6
3
✗
ASU −1.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
22%
78%
27
28
✓
STAN −13.0
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Temple
46%
54%
12
13
✓
TEM −1.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Texas A&M
21%
79%
17
38
✓
TA&M −13.3
–
–
Final
Kansas State@TCU
22%
78%
10
42
✓
TCU −13.2
–
–
Final
#25Air Force@UtahUpset
58%
42%
17
28
✗
AF −3.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@Vanderbilt
28%
72%
6
41
✓
VAN −9.7
–
–
Final
Virginia@Navy
28%
72%
21
9
✗
NAVY −9.6
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
37%
63%
24
15
✗
NCSU −5.8
–
–
Final
Houston@#11Washington
17%
83%
7
35
✓
WASH −15.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@Washington State
16%
84%
14
16
✓
WSU −16.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD New Mexico State at Drake New Mexico State −10.8 74%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Georgia Southern at East Carolina East Carolina −16.9 84%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD The Citadel at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −33.9 98%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD McNeese at West Texas McNeese −5.3 63%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Louisiana Tech at Ole Miss Ole Miss −14.9 81%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Pacific at Northern Arizona Pacific −0.9 52%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD William & Mary at #22 Penn State Penn State −36.0 98%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Lamar at Rice Rice −18.4 86%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD North Texas at #18 SMU SMU −13.7 79%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Toledo Toledo −28.9 96%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Richmond at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −39.0 99%