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2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 1984

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 26 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

Chaos 92

Wilder than 92% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 5.9 expected

  • Biggest shockMurray State over Louisville7.7% chance · won 26-23
  • Runner-upCal State Fullerton over Boise State12% chance · won 27-25
  • Runner-upFresno State over Arizona21% chance · won 27-22

Upsets

Sat, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 12 games

Final
San Diego State@Air Force
23%
77%
16
34
✓
AF −11.0
–
–
Final
#2BYU@#9Pittsburgh
46%
54%
20
14
✗
PITT −0.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#13Florida State
32%
68%
17
48
✓
FSU −6.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#21ArizonaUpset
21%
79%
27
22
✗
ARIZ −11.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#12Illinois
12%
88%
16
24
✓
ILL −17.9
–
–
Final
#3Florida@Miami (FL)Upset
58%
42%
20
32
✗
FLA −3.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Tulane
45%
55%
30
3
✗
TULN −1.5
–
–
Final
West Texas@Northern Illinois
2.0%
98%
33
40
✓
NIU −31.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@San Jose State
25%
75%
0
14
✓
SJSU −9.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@Tennessee
34%
66%
27
34
✓
TENN −5.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@Texas A&M
20%
80%
17
20
✓
TA&M −12.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@#16West Virginia
16%
84%
0
38
✓
WVU −15.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Western Carolina at Boston College Boston College −31.7 98%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Boise State Boise State −17.4 88%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Northern Michigan at Central Michigan Central Michigan −28.8 97%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Louisiana at Chattanooga Louisiana −7.2 67%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Appalachian State at #14 Clemson Clemson −17.8 88%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Akron at Kent State Kent State −0.6 53%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Ball State at UMass UMass −0.3 52%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Arkansas State at Memphis Memphis −10.9 77%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Murray State at Louisville Louisville −21.7 92%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Texas State at Wichita State Texas State −1.3 52%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Southern Illinois at Tulsa Tulsa −23.1 93%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Weber State at Utah Utah −33.3 98%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD South Dakota at Wyoming Wyoming −34.4 99%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Eastern Michigan at Youngstown State Eastern Michigan −10.2 74%