The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1984

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 73

Wilder than 73% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 13.2 expected

  • Biggest shockFurman over NC State8.0% chance · won 34-30
  • Runner-upYoungstown State over Cincinnati9.4% chance · won 27-23
  • Runner-upNavy over North Carolina24% chance · won 33-30

Upsets

Sat, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 39 games

Final
Arizona@Oregon State
69%
31%
27
8
✓
ARIZ −8.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Arizona State
36%
64%
0
48
✓
ASU −6.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#3BYU
10%
90%
15
38
✓
BYU −20.9
–
–
Final
Pacific@California
5.0%
95%
12
28
✓
CAL −27.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Central Michigan
35%
65%
12
17
✓
CMU −6.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Colorado State
39%
61%
3
10
✓
CSU −4.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@#12Florida
13%
87%
21
63
✓
FLA −18.6
–
–
Final
#9Florida State@Kansas
72%
28%
42
16
✓
FSU −9.8
–
–
Final
#21Alabama@Georgia TechUpset
65%
35%
6
16
✗
ALA −6.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Houston
43%
57%
17
30
✓
HOU −3.2
–
–
Final
#24Kentucky@Indiana
70%
30%
48
14
✓
UK −8.8
–
–
Final
Wichita State@LSU
2.3%
98%
7
47
✓
LSU −33.1
–
–
Final
#2Miami (FL)@Purdue
80%
20%
28
17
✓
MIA −13.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Ole Miss
39%
61%
14
14
✗
MISS −4.8
–
–
Final
Navy@North CarolinaUpset
24%
76%
33
30
✗
UNC −12.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#1Nebraska
2.5%
98%
7
38
✓
NEB −32.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@New Mexico State
79%
21%
28
21
✓
UNLV −13.2
–
–
Final
West Texas@New Mexico
1.3%
99%
0
27
✓
UNM −37.0
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Michigan State
59%
41%
24
20
✓
ND −3.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Ball State
38%
62%
31
17
✗
BALL −5.0
–
–
Final
Washington State@#14Ohio State
28%
72%
0
44
✓
OSU −9.9
–
–
Final
#17Oklahoma@#15Pittsburgh
41%
59%
42
10
✗
PITT −3.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#5Oklahoma State
14%
86%
14
31
✓
OKST −18.0
–
–
Final
Colorado@Oregon
42%
58%
20
27
✓
ORE −3.5
–
–
Final
Penn State@#8IowaUpset
25%
75%
20
17
✗
IOWA −11.4
–
–
Final
Temple@Rutgers
57%
43%
9
10
✗
TEM −3.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@San Diego State
30%
70%
2
51
✓
SDSU −9.1
–
–
Final
SMU@Louisville
79%
21%
41
7
✓
SMU −13.0
–
–
Final
#22Illinois@StanfordUpset
66%
34%
19
34
✗
ILL −6.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Northwestern
78%
22%
13
12
✓
SYR −12.7
–
–
Final
Utah@#25Tennessee
28%
72%
21
27
✓
TENN −9.6
–
–
Final
#7Auburn@#18Texas
55%
45%
27
35
✗
AUB −1.9
–
–
Final
TCU@Utah State
49%
51%
62
18
✗
USU −0.4
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@#19UCLA
5.6%
94%
17
23
✓
UCLA −26.4
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Maryland
39%
61%
23
14
✗
MD −4.8
–
–
Final
#13Washington@#6Michigan
32%
68%
20
11
✗
MICH −7.8
–
–
Final
#10West Virginia@Virginia Tech
57%
43%
14
7
✓
WVU −2.8
–
–
Final
#23Wisconsin@Missouri
44%
56%
35
34
✗
MIZ −2.5
–
–
Final
#20Air Force@WyomingUpset
72%
28%
20
26
✗
AF −9.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Colgate at Army Army −14.2 80%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Idaho at Cal State Fullerton Cal State Fullerton −17.7 86%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Cal Poly at Fresno State Fresno State −36.5 99%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Furman at NC State NC State −23.4 92%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Drake at Iowa State Iowa State −22.2 91%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Tennessee Tech at Kansas State Kansas State −19.8 88%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana Louisiana-Monroe −1.3 53%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Eastern Michigan at Marshall Marshall −9.2 71%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss Southern Miss −14.7 81%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Texas-Arlington at Texas Tech Texas Tech −23.1 92%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD VMI at Virginia Virginia −21.3 90%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Wake Forest −12.1 77%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Illinois State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −26.8 95%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Youngstown State at Cincinnati Cincinnati −21.9 91%