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2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1984

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 50

Wilder than 50% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 13.2 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern State over Southern Miss4.4% chance · won 22-0
  • Runner-upVirginia over West Virginia21% chance · won 27-7
  • Runner-upArmy over Air Force22% chance · won 24-12

Upsets

Sat, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 49 games

Final
Alabama@Mississippi State
48%
52%
24
20
✗
MSST −0.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@Arizona
8.8%
91%
10
45
✓
ARIZ −21.2
–
–
Final
Rice@#18Arkansas
3.9%
96%
6
28
✓
ARK −27.8
–
–
Final
#19Air Force@ArmyUpset
78%
22%
12
24
✗
AF −12.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Baylor
29%
71%
2
38
✓
BAY −8.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ball State
78%
22%
38
13
✓
BGSU −12.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@#3BYU
0.7%
99%
9
42
✓
BYU −39.4
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Fresno State
36%
64%
20
17
✗
FRES −5.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#12Clemson
9.9%
90%
14
37
✓
CLEM −20.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Eastern Michigan
55%
45%
18
20
✗
KENT −2.4
–
–
Final
#8Auburn@#4Florida
38%
62%
3
24
✓
FLA −4.3
–
–
Final
#2Florida State@Arizona State
71%
29%
52
44
✓
FSU −9.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@#7Georgia
23%
77%
3
13
✓
UGA −11.1
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
13%
87%
3
31
✓
GT −17.6
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Hawaii
42%
58%
28
31
✓
HAW −2.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#20Illinois
9.6%
90%
3
48
✓
ILL −20.4
–
–
Final
Kansas@Colorado
51%
49%
28
27
✓
KU −0.7
–
–
Final
Pacific@Long Beach State
17%
83%
22
24
✓
Long Beach State −15.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@East Carolina
48%
52%
42
24
✗
ECU −0.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#14LSU
24%
76%
29
32
✓
LSU −11.1
–
–
Final
#21Maryland@North Carolina
61%
39%
34
23
✓
MD −5.0
–
–
Final
#5Miami (FL)@Louisville
95%
4.8%
38
23
✓
MIA −27.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Michigan State
17%
83%
10
27
✓
MSU −14.7
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@Iowa State
96%
3.8%
44
0
✓
NEB −28.8
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Diego State
31%
68%
30
14
✗
SDSU −7.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Wichita State
45%
55%
31
24
✗
Wichita State −1.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Northern Illinois
67%
33%
7
8
✗
CMU −7.4
–
–
Final
Navy@Notre Dame
16%
84%
17
18
✓
ND −15.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
61%
39%
19
24
✗
M-OH −5.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@#13Ohio State
6.2%
94%
7
50
✓
OSU −24.3
–
–
Final
#17Missouri@#22Oklahoma
45%
55%
7
49
✓
OU −1.5
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma State@Kansas State
92%
8.4%
34
6
✓
OKST −22.4
–
–
Final
Oregon@UCLA
26%
74%
20
18
✗
UCLA −9.8
–
–
Final
#16Boston College@Penn StateUpset
50%
50%
30
37
✗
BC −0.6
–
–
Final
Michigan@Purdue
51%
49%
29
31
✗
MICH −1.0
–
–
Final
#23South Carolina@NC State
66%
34%
35
28
✓
SC −7.3
–
–
Final
USC@Stanford
64%
36%
20
11
✓
USC −6.3
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#24SMU
18%
82%
20
28
✓
SMU −13.9
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Syracuse
32%
68%
7
13
✓
SYR −6.9
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Temple
22%
78%
10
42
✓
TEM −11.7
–
–
Final
#10Texas@Texas Tech
77%
23%
13
10
✓
TEX −12.4
–
–
Final
#25TCU@Houston
64%
36%
21
14
✓
TCU −6.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
30%
70%
13
17
✓
TOL −8.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah
16%
84%
23
35
✓
UTAH −15.6
–
–
Final
Virginia@#15West VirginiaUpset
21%
79%
27
7
✗
WVU −12.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@Virginia Tech
34%
66%
6
13
✓
VT −6.1
–
–
Final
California@#6Washington
7.4%
93%
14
44
✓
WASH −22.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington State
22%
78%
3
20
✓
WSU −12.0
–
–
Final
#11Iowa@Wisconsin
67%
33%
10
10
✓
IOWA −7.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 3 · TBD North Texas at Kentucky Kentucky −12.6 79%
Sat, Nov 3 · TBD Northwestern State at Southern Miss Southern Miss −27.0 96%
Sat, Nov 3 · TBD Tulsa at Illinois State Tulsa −29.7 97%