The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1984

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 88

Wilder than 88% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockIdaho over Oregon State5.8% chance · won 41-22
  • Runner-upSyracuse over Nebraska11% chance · won 17-9
  • Runner-upOhio over Toledo15% chance · won 16-16

Upsets

Sat, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
Colorado State@Air Force
20%
80%
10
52
✓
AF −14.2
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Arizona
9.2%
91%
24
31
✓
ARIZ −22.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Stanford
52%
48%
28
10
✓
ASU −0.7
–
–
Final
Navy@Arkansas
22%
78%
10
33
✓
ARK −12.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Army
49%
51%
9
13
✓
ARMY −0.7
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#8Auburn
22%
78%
10
29
✓
AUB −13.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern IllinoisUpset
19%
81%
15
14
✗
NIU −14.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas Tech
41%
59%
18
9
✗
TTU −3.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling Green
6.5%
94%
27
35
✓
BGSU −25.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@Cal State Fullerton
35%
65%
16
27
✓
Cal State Fullerton −6.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Kent State
74%
26%
14
10
✓
CMU −10.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#12Florida
22%
78%
12
27
✓
FLA −12.9
–
–
Final
Temple@#2Florida State
11%
89%
27
44
✓
FSU −20.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Fresno State
13%
87%
24
53
✓
FRES −19.0
–
–
Final
#3Clemson@Georgia TechUpset
72%
28%
21
28
✗
CLEM −9.4
–
–
Final
UNLV@Hawaii
51%
49%
12
16
✗
UNLV −0.5
–
–
Final
#24Illinois@#20Iowa
41%
59%
16
21
✓
IOWA −3.8
–
–
Final
West Texas@Iowa State
9.3%
91%
0
14
✓
ISU −22.1
–
–
Final
LSU@#21USCUpset
37%
63%
23
3
✗
USC −5.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@HoustonUpset
19%
80%
30
28
✗
HOU −14.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Maryland
33%
67%
17
38
✓
MD −7.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Memphis
46%
54%
13
23
✓
MEM −1.7
–
–
Final
Rice@#11Miami (FL)
3.9%
96%
3
38
✓
MIA −29.4
–
–
Final
#15Michigan@Indiana
86%
14%
14
6
✓
MICH −17.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@Ole Miss
20%
80%
14
19
✓
MISS −14.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UTEP
82%
18%
34
7
✓
UNM −15.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@North Carolina
30%
70%
17
23
✓
UNC −8.6
–
–
Final
East Carolina@NC State
43%
57%
22
31
✓
NCSU −2.9
–
–
Final
#16Notre Dame@#22Missouri
47%
53%
16
14
✗
MIZ −1.3
–
–
Final
#4Ohio State@Minnesota
92%
7.5%
35
22
✓
OSU −23.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#6Oklahoma
5.2%
95%
6
24
✓
OU −27.1
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma State@Tulsa
80%
20%
31
7
✓
OKST −13.8
–
–
Final
Pacific@Oregon
6.7%
93%
14
30
✓
ORE −25.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@Michigan State
56%
44%
13
10
✓
PUR −2.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Rutgers
18%
82%
15
43
✓
RUTG −15.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@California
30%
70%
33
18
✗
CAL −9.0
–
–
Final
#13Georgia@South CarolinaUpset
70%
30%
10
17
✗
UGA −8.3
–
–
Final
TCU@#14SMU
32%
68%
17
26
✓
SMU −8.0
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@SyracuseUpset
89%
11%
9
17
✗
NEB −20.1
–
–
Final
Penn State@#10Texas
28%
72%
3
28
✓
TEX −9.8
–
–
Final
Ohio@Toledo
15%
85%
16
16
✗
TOL −17.5
–
–
Final
UCLA@Colorado
67%
33%
33
16
✓
UCLA −7.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#25AlabamaUpset
41%
59%
30
21
✗
ALA −4.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@Virginia Tech
31%
69%
26
23
✗
VT −8.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#9Washington
5.2%
95%
7
53
✓
WASH −27.0
–
–
Final
#18West Virginia@Pittsburgh
56%
44%
28
10
✓
WVU −2.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#23Wisconsin
12%
88%
16
31
✓
WIS −19.5
–
–
Final
Utah@Wyoming
61%
39%
14
21
✗
UTAH −4.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Oregon State at Idaho Oregon State −26.0 94%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Arkansas State at Texas A&M Texas A&M −11.5 76%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Marshall at Western Michigan Western Michigan −9.7 72%