The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 1994

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 19 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 72

Wilder than 72% of weeks in the archive.

7 upsets against 5.1 expected

  • Biggest shockNC State over Virginia15% chance · won 30-27
  • Runner-upTCU over Texas Tech29% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upLSU over Arkansas35% chance · won 30-12

Upsets

Thu, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
38%
62%
63
35
✗
BAY −4.2
–
–
Final
41%
59%
0
13
✓
WVU −3.3
–
–

Fri, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
14%
86%
27
28
✓
ARIZ −17.0
–
–
Final
13%
87%
10
48
✓
UGA −17.4
–
–
Final
84%
16%
13
3
✓
NEB −16.2
–
–
Final
15%
85%
30
27
✗
UVA −16.1
–
–
Final
#23Texas Tech@TCUUpset
71%
29%
17
24
✗
TTU −9.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 12 games

Final
41%
59%
31
31
✗
FLA −3.1
–
–
Final
35%
65%
49
42
✗
SDSU −5.5
–
–
Final
90%
10%
42
3
✓
KSU −20.8
–
–
Final
35%
65%
30
12
✗
ARK −5.6
–
–
Final
19%
81%
27
34
✓
LOU −13.4
–
–
Final
18%
82%
7
23
✓
MIA −14.0
–
–
Final
52%
48%
21
17
✓
MSST −1.1
–
–
Final
52%
48%
32
32
✓
HAW −1.2
–
–
Final
40%
60%
17
17
✗
ND −3.5
–
–
Final
8.6%
91%
31
59
✓
PSU −21.5
–
–
Final
83%
17%
31
13
✓
RICE −15.7
–
–
Final
76%
24%
65
0
✓
TENN −11.5
–
–