The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1994

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 51

Wilder than 51% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 11.6 expected

  • Biggest shockUTEP over Hawaii5.8% chance · won 34-28
  • Runner-upOregon over USC18% chance · won 22-7
  • Runner-upAir Force over San Diego State24% chance · won 36-35

Upsets

Thu, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Kentucky@#25Auburn
10%
90%
14
41
✓
AUB −21.0
–
–

Fri, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Utah State@BYU
15%
86%
6
34
✓
BYU −17.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 43 games

Final
Air Force@San Diego StateUpset
24%
76%
36
35
✗
SDSU −11.6
–
–
Final
Georgia@Alabama
44%
56%
28
29
✓
ALA −2.5
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#12Arizona
10%
90%
10
30
✓
ARIZ −20.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Arkansas
34%
66%
6
42
✓
ARK −7.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
48%
52%
28
31
✓
BALL −1.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@TCU
58%
42%
42
18
✓
BAY −3.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Cincinnati
78%
22%
38
0
✓
BGSU −12.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@California
7.9%
92%
0
55
✓
CAL −23.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@Clemson
39%
61%
0
13
✓
CLEM −4.8
–
–
Final
#6Colorado@#24Texas
70%
30%
34
31
✓
COLO −8.4
–
–
Final
Colorado State@New Mexico
63%
37%
38
31
✓
CSU −5.3
–
–
Final
Duke@Navy
95%
5.3%
47
14
✓
DUKE −26.7
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@East Carolina
49%
51%
10
31
✓
ECU −0.6
–
–
Final
#2Florida@Ole Miss
89%
11%
38
14
✓
FLA −20.6
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Indiana
16%
84%
14
25
✓
IU −16.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana Tech
47%
53%
13
3
✗
LT −1.5
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Louisville
20%
80%
29
33
✓
LOU −14.2
–
–
Final
#5Miami (FL)@Rutgers
90%
9.5%
24
3
✓
MIA −21.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Eastern Michigan
55%
45%
21
17
✓
M-OH −1.8
–
–
Final
#11Michigan@Iowa
79%
21%
29
14
✓
MICH −13.5
–
–
Final
#13Wisconsin@Michigan StateUpset
60%
40%
10
29
✗
WIS −4.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Mississippi State
5.8%
94%
3
49
✓
MSST −26.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#4Nebraska
1.7%
98%
32
42
✓
NEB −35.3
–
–
Final
Nevada@Northern Illinois
64%
36%
35
31
✓
NEV −5.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@New Mexico State
45%
55%
31
27
✗
NMSU −2.4
–
–
Final
#16North Carolina@SMU
89%
11%
28
24
✓
UNC −19.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@NC State
21%
79%
13
21
✓
NCSU −13.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@#8Notre Dame
7.1%
93%
15
34
✓
ND −24.5
–
–
Final
#10Ohio State@Northwestern
88%
12%
17
15
✓
OSU −19.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#21Oklahoma
3.7%
96%
6
34
✓
OU −29.8
–
–
Final
Oregon@#18USCUpset
18%
82%
22
7
✗
USC −15.0
–
–
Final
#3Penn State@Temple
99%
1.0%
48
21
✓
PSU −38.5
–
–
Final
Purdue@#23IllinoisUpset
30%
70%
22
16
✗
ILL −8.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@LSU
45%
55%
18
17
✗
LSU −2.3
–
–
Final
#14Virginia Tech@SyracuseUpset
67%
33%
20
28
✗
VT −7.2
–
–
Final
#15Washington State@#17Tennessee
46%
54%
9
10
✓
TENN −1.7
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#7Texas A&M
11%
89%
17
23
✓
TA&M −20.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UTEPUpset
94%
5.8%
28
34
✗
HAW −26.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ohio
38%
62%
31
6
✗
OHIO −5.0
–
–
Final
Army@Wake Forest
48%
52%
27
33
✓
WAKE −0.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@#9Washington
13%
87%
10
37
✓
WASH −18.8
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Missouri
53%
47%
34
10
✓
WVU −1.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
9.5%
90%
10
24
✓
WMU −21.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD Weber State at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −12.3 77%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD North Texas at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −12.6 77%
Sat, Oct 1 · TBD William & Mary at Virginia Virginia −41.9 99%