The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 1994

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 47 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 52

Wilder than 52% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 11.9 expected

  • Biggest shockSMU over Texas A&M1.6% chance · won 21-21
  • Runner-upArizona State over BYU22% chance · won 36-15
  • Runner-upEastern Michigan over Ball State23% chance · won 41-20

Upsets

Sat, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
43%
57%
34
17
✗
WYO −2.5
–
–
Final
22%
78%
36
15
✗
BYU −12.0
–
–
Final
20%
80%
14
31
✓
AUB −12.8
–
–
Final
3.2%
97%
13
52
✓
BAY −29.3
–
–
Final
87%
13%
30
3
✓
BC −18.8
–
–
Final
7.9%
92%
16
27
✓
BGSU −22.1
–
–
Final
86%
14%
22
10
✓
CMU −17.7
–
–
Final
12%
88%
8
24
✓
CLEM −18.1
–
–
Final
11%
89%
21
35
✓
ECU −19.3
–
–
Final
23%
77%
41
20
✗
BALL −11.1
–
–
Final
7.4%
93%
14
52
✓
FLA −22.8
–
–
Final
11%
89%
20
59
✓
FSU −19.3
–
–
Final
74%
26%
28
7
✓
ILL −10.6
–
–
Final
58%
42%
21
21
✓
PUR −3.6
–
–
Final
21%
79%
14
24
✓
KU −12.5
–
–
Final
51%
49%
37
20
✓
KSU −0.8
–
–
Final
34%
66%
6
10
✓
LOU −6.0
–
–
Final
22%
78%
10
38
✓
MD −11.8
–
–
Final
15%
85%
3
24
✓
MIA −15.9
–
–
Final
36%
64%
21
27
✓
MSU −5.3
–
–
Final
48%
52%
21
34
✓
MISS −0.5
–
–
Final
71%
29%
47
7
✓
MSST −9.4
–
–
Final
58%
42%
34
20
✓
MIZ −3.9
–
–
Final
32%
68%
7
24
✓
NEB −6.8
–
–
Final
27%
73%
10
23
✓
UNLV −9.2
–
–
Final
33%
67%
49
32
✗
FRES −6.6
–
–
Final
29%
71%
17
31
✓
UNC −8.3
–
–
Final
0.5%
>99%
21
58
✓
ND −41.4
–
–
Final
#15Arizona@OregonUpset
56%
44%
9
10
✗
ARIZ −3.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@Pacific
53%
47%
6
28
✗
USU −1.7
–
–
Final
19%
81%
14
63
✓
PSU −13.6
–
–
Final
33%
67%
19
45
✓
PITT −6.7
–
–
Final
42%
58%
23
38
✓
SDSU −2.8
–
–
Final
23%
77%
29
47
✓
USM −11.4
–
–
Final
60%
40%
31
22
✓
TENN −4.4
–
–
Final
1.6%
98%
21
21
✗
TA&M −34.2
–
–
Final
48%
52%
25
27
✓
TCU −0.1
–
–
Final
42%
58%
9
33
✓
TTU −2.6
–
–
Final
16%
84%
14
48
✓
TOL −15.4
–
–
Final
44%
56%
30
31
✓
UCLA −1.9
–
–
Final
1.3%
99%
7
52
✓
UTAH −35.4
–
–
Final
17%
83%
16
17
✓
VAN −14.6
–
–
Final
10%
90%
10
24
✓
WASH −19.8
–
–
Final
71%
29%
26
23
✓
WSU −9.3
–
–
Final
10%
90%
16
52
✓
WVU −19.7
–
–
Final
26%
74%
31
19
✗
MICH −9.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 29 · TBD Akron at Youngstown State Youngstown State −12.5 79%