The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 1994

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 44

Wilder than 44% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 12.6 expected

  • Biggest shockUTEP over Fresno State11% chance · won 30-30
  • Runner-upBoston University over Army17% chance · won 21-12
  • Runner-upCentral Michigan over Bowling Green19% chance · won 36-33

Upsets

Thu, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
32%
68%
28
35
✓
BYU −7.1
–
–

Sat, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 49 games

Final
#14Utah@Air ForceUpset
71%
29%
33
40
✗
UTAH −9.3
–
–
Final
44%
56%
29
25
✗
MSST −1.7
–
–
Final
13%
87%
27
30
✓
ARK −17.5
–
–
Final
6.8%
93%
28
38
✓
BALL −23.5
–
–
Final
58%
42%
19
14
✓
BAY −3.6
–
–
Final
24%
76%
0
31
✓
BC −10.9
–
–
Final
19%
81%
36
33
✗
BGSU −13.6
–
–
Final
24%
76%
10
20
✓
CLEM −10.5
–
–
Final
77%
23%
51
26
✓
COLO −12.1
–
–
Final
1.8%
98%
3
48
✓
CSU −33.5
–
–
Final
69%
31%
24
13
✓
EMU −8.4
–
–
Final
3.7%
96%
17
48
✓
FLA −28.2
–
–
Final
14%
86%
16
23
✓
FSU −16.6
–
–
Final
12%
88%
30
30
✗
FRES −18.8
–
–
Final
67%
33%
23
23
✓
AUB −7.7
–
–
Final
36%
64%
13
49
✓
IOWA −5.4
–
–
Final
84%
16%
21
18
✓
KSU −16.5
–
–
Final
30%
70%
21
14
✗
UK −8.0
–
–
Final
0.6%
99%
12
17
✓
MIA −39.7
–
–
Final
14%
86%
14
24
✓
M-OH −17.0
–
–
Final
7.0%
93%
22
38
✓
MICH −23.3
–
–
Final
31%
69%
30
42
✓
MSU −7.6
–
–
Final
82%
18%
38
0
✓
MISS −14.9
–
–
Final
99%
0.7%
28
12
✓
NEB −39.7
–
–
Final
10%
90%
28
56
✓
NEV −19.9
–
–
Final
89%
11%
50
0
✓
UNC −20.2
–
–
Final
56%
44%
23
24
✗
DUKE −2.7
–
–
Final
65%
35%
32
17
✓
OSU −6.5
–
–
Final
62%
38%
33
14
✓
OU −5.4
–
–
Final
56%
44%
55
21
✓
ORE −3.0
–
–
Final
70%
30%
3
21
✗
WSU −9.0
–
–
Final
54%
46%
21
14
✓
Pacific −2.2
–
–
Final
75%
25%
35
31
✓
PSU −11.4
–
–
Final
34%
66%
27
6
✗
LT −6.0
–
–
Final
#17Arizona@#10USC
37%
63%
28
45
✓
USC −4.7
–
–
Final
40%
60%
20
18
✗
LSU −3.6
–
–
Final
19%
81%
13
24
✓
TENN −13.7
–
–
Final
3.5%
96%
13
48
✓
TEX −28.8
–
–
Final
77%
23%
26
10
✓
TA&M −12.4
–
–
Final
57%
43%
35
14
✓
TCU −3.3
–
–
Final
6.9%
93%
7
39
✓
TTU −23.4
–
–
Final
52%
48%
34
37
✗
WMU −1.5
–
–
Final
36%
64%
59
23
✗
ASU −5.3
–
–
Final
12%
88%
21
46
✓
UVA −18.5
–
–
Final
13%
87%
34
41
✓
VT −17.3
–
–
Final
17%
83%
19
31
✓
WASH −14.5
–
–
Final
78%
22%
55
17
✓
WVU −12.8
–
–
Final
4.6%
95%
7
38
✓
WIS −26.6
–
–
Final
54%
46%
28
38
✗
UNM −2.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 12 · TBD Boston University at Army Army −14.8 83%
Sat, Nov 12 · TBD UCF at East Carolina East Carolina −16.7 86%
Sat, Nov 12 · TBD Southeast Missouri State at Hawaii Hawaii −24.1 94%
Sat, Nov 12 · TBD Missouri State at Tulsa Tulsa −7.9 70%