The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1994

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 70

Wilder than 70% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 14.4 expected

  • Biggest shockMaryland over West Virginia7.7% chance · won 24-13
  • Runner-upTroy over Louisiana19% chance · won 39-20
  • Runner-upIdaho over UNLV24% chance · won 48-38

Upsets

Thu, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Army@Duke
31%
69%
7
43
✓
DUKE −8.2
–
–

Sat, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
Alabama@Arkansas
54%
46%
13
6
✓
ALA −1.7
–
–
Final
LSU@#14Auburn
21%
79%
26
30
✓
AUB −13.6
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#23Baylor
21%
78%
10
14
✓
BAY −13.2
–
–
Final
Navy@Bowling Green
2.4%
98%
21
59
✓
BGSU −32.9
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
67%
33%
30
29
✓
CMU −7.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
29%
71%
17
17
✗
CIN −9.2
–
–
Final
#10Wisconsin@#11Colorado
40%
60%
17
55
✓
COLO −4.1
–
–
Final
Colorado State@BYU
31%
69%
28
21
✗
BYU −8.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Temple
53%
47%
31
14
✓
ECU −1.2
–
–
Final
#4Florida@#6Tennessee
50%
50%
31
0
✓
PK
–
–
Final
#2Florida State@Wake Forest
98%
2.0%
56
14
✓
FSU −34.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Fresno State
36%
64%
14
24
✓
FRES −6.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Georgia
10%
90%
6
70
✓
UGA −21.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@California
31%
69%
21
7
✗
CAL −8.5
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Illinois
3.6%
96%
10
34
✓
ILL −30.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Kentucky
68%
32%
59
29
✓
IU −7.5
–
–
Final
Rice@#19Kansas State
11%
89%
18
27
✓
KSU −20.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Kent State
32%
68%
16
32
✓
KENT −7.7
–
–
Final
Louisville@Arizona State
44%
56%
25
22
✗
ASU −2.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@West VirginiaUpset
7.7%
92%
24
13
✗
WVU −23.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Minnesota
73%
27%
17
40
✗
SDSU −10.1
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
48%
52%
20
14
✗
VAN −1.0
–
–
Final
Missouri@Houston
59%
41%
16
0
✓
MIZ −3.8
–
–
Final
#17UCLA@#3Nebraska
13%
87%
21
49
✓
NEB −19.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
48%
52%
23
22
✗
UTEP −0.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@#24North Carolina
4.9%
95%
0
49
✓
UNC −27.6
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Air Force
54%
46%
14
10
✓
NU −1.5
–
–
Final
#8Notre Dame@Michigan State
77%
23%
21
20
✓
ND −12.0
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#12Ohio State
7.3%
93%
3
27
✓
OSU −24.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#18Oklahoma
20%
80%
11
17
✓
OU −13.9
–
–
Final
Iowa@#5Penn State
9.3%
91%
21
61
✓
PSU −22.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@Purdue
33%
67%
21
49
✓
PUR −7.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@South Carolina
13%
87%
6
31
✓
SC −18.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@SMU
44%
56%
31
34
✓
SMU −2.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@Southern Miss
58%
42%
3
20
✗
MEM −3.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
12%
88%
20
51
✓
STAN −19.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
28%
72%
36
37
✓
SYR −9.7
–
–
Final
Kansas@TCU
57%
43%
21
31
✗
KU −2.8
–
–
Final
Utah@Oregon
50%
50%
34
16
✗
ORE −0.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@Ohio
51%
49%
5
0
✓
USU −0.4
–
–
Final
Clemson@#22Virginia
11%
89%
6
9
✓
UVA −20.8
–
–
Final
#15Virginia Tech@#20Boston College
44%
56%
12
7
✗
BC −2.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Iowa State
68%
32%
23
19
✓
WMU −7.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Wyoming
29%
71%
7
17
✓
WYO −9.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Southern Illinois at Arkansas State Arkansas State −39.9 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Nevada at Boise State Boise State −6.8 66%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Idaho at UNLV UNLV −11.9 76%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Texas State at Pacific Texas State −6.4 65%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Liberty at Toledo Toledo −1.6 54%
Sat, Sep 17 · TBD Troy at Louisiana Louisiana −14.5 81%