The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 1994

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

Chaos 19

Wilder than 19% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 15.8 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthern Iowa over Iowa State7.8% chance · won 28-14
  • Runner-upTemple over Akron24% chance · won 32-7
  • Runner-upMississippi State over Memphis36% chance · won 17-6

Upsets

Thu, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#14Arizona@Georgia Tech
60%
40%
19
14
✓
ARIZ −4.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Houston
60%
40%
35
13
✓
KU −4.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@NC State
40%
60%
15
20
✓
NCSU −3.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Northern Illinois
56%
44%
31
14
✓
OKST −2.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@Illinois
44%
56%
10
9
✗
ILL −1.9
–
–

Sat, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 39 games

Final
Oregon State@Arizona State
30%
70%
16
22
✓
ASU −7.6
–
–
Final
SMU@Arkansas
31%
70%
14
34
✓
ARK −7.4
–
–
Final
#22Auburn@Ole Miss
48%
52%
22
17
✗
MISS −0.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Baylor
25%
75%
3
44
✓
BAY −9.9
–
–
Final
BYU@Hawaii
45%
55%
13
12
✗
HAW −1.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#12Colorado
16%
84%
13
48
✓
COLO −14.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Air Force
45%
55%
34
21
✗
AF −1.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@Duke
36%
64%
16
49
✓
DUKE −5.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#7Florida
8.3%
92%
21
70
✓
FLA −21.1
–
–
Final
#25Virginia@#2Florida State
17%
83%
17
41
✓
FSU −14.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
60%
40%
13
45
✗
SJSU −4.4
–
–
Final
Georgia@South Carolina
51%
49%
24
21
✓
UGA −1.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Indiana
37%
63%
3
28
✓
IU −4.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Iowa
39%
61%
21
52
✓
IOWA −4.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Kansas State
26%
74%
6
34
✓
KSU −9.7
–
–
Final
#23Louisville@KentuckyUpset
52%
48%
14
20
✗
LOU −1.5
–
–
Final
#18Boston College@#8Michigan
33%
67%
26
34
✓
MICH −6.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Memphis
36%
64%
17
6
✗
MEM −4.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@UNLV
41%
59%
3
17
✓
UNLV −3.1
–
–
Final
TCU@#21North Carolina
19%
81%
17
27
✓
UNC −13.2
–
–
Final
#4Notre Dame@Northwestern
77%
23%
42
15
✓
ND −11.8
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma@Syracuse
59%
41%
30
29
✓
OU −3.9
–
–
Final
#10Penn State@Minnesota
71%
29%
56
3
✓
PSU −8.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Rutgers
19%
81%
6
28
✓
RUTG −13.2
–
–
Final
Navy@San Diego State
23%
77%
14
56
✓
SDSU −10.8
–
–
Final
#17Washington@#16USC
40%
60%
17
24
✓
USC −3.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Tulane
55%
45%
25
10
✓
USM −2.4
–
–
Final
Temple@AkronUpset
24%
76%
32
7
✗
AKR −10.7
–
–
Final
Texas@Pittsburgh
60%
40%
30
28
✓
TEX −4.6
–
–
Final
#6Texas A&M@LSU
71%
29%
18
13
✓
TA&M −9.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Texas Tech
33%
67%
31
37
✓
TTU −6.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Missouri
42%
58%
20
17
✗
MIZ −2.6
–
–
Final
#5Tennessee@#11UCLA
49%
51%
23
25
✓
TENN −0.3
–
–
Final
Utah@Utah State
45%
55%
32
17
✗
USU −1.6
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Vanderbilt
38%
62%
14
35
✓
VAN −4.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#20Virginia Tech
9.4%
91%
7
34
✓
VT −20.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@West Virginia
54%
46%
14
16
✗
BALL −2.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Miami (OH)
49%
51%
28
25
✗
WMU −0.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@Wyoming
22%
78%
13
36
✓
WYO −11.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 3 · TBD Chattanooga at #13 Alabama Alabama −44.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 3 · TBD Furman at Clemson Clemson −32.8 98%
Sat, Sep 3 · TBD Georgia Southern at #1 Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −24.3 94%
Sat, Sep 3 · TBD Northern Arizona at Nevada Nevada −23.4 94%
Sat, Sep 3 · TBD Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State −21.6 92%
Sat, Sep 3 · TBD Portland State at Oregon Oregon −27.6 96%
Sat, Sep 3 · TBD UC Davis at Pacific Pacific −9.4 74%
Sat, Sep 3 · TBD Indiana State at Toledo Toledo −32.8 98%