The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1994

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 38

Wilder than 38% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 12.5 expected

  • Biggest shockMinnesota over Wisconsin6.9% chance · won 17-14
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Indiana17% chance · won 20-7
  • Runner-upOregon over Washington30% chance · won 31-20

Upsets

Sat, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
Fresno State@Air Force
66%
34%
7
42
✗
FRES −7.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Alabama
24%
76%
10
21
✓
ALA −11.0
–
–
Final
UCLA@#10Arizona
10%
90%
24
34
✓
ARIZ −19.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@#22Bowling Green
8.9%
91%
36
59
✓
BGSU −21.2
–
–
Final
BYU@UTEP
94%
6.1%
34
28
✓
BYU −25.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Central Michigan
29%
71%
30
32
✓
CMU −8.5
–
–
Final
#19Kansas State@#6Colorado
20%
80%
21
35
✓
COLO −13.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
91%
9.1%
51
26
✓
DUKE −21.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Tulsa
70%
30%
28
21
✓
ECU −8.6
–
–
Final
Clemson@#3Florida State
1.9%
98%
0
17
✓
FSU −33.1
–
–
Final
Georgia@Kentucky
74%
26%
34
30
✓
UGA −10.7
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Iowa
67%
33%
14
19
✗
MSU −7.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Iowa State
74%
26%
31
31
✓
OKST −10.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
48%
52%
0
24
✓
KENT −0.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Utah State
43%
57%
27
25
✗
USU −2.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@Navy
94%
6.2%
35
14
✓
LOU −25.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Maryland
47%
53%
27
42
✓
MD −0.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Memphis
19%
81%
3
26
✓
MEM −13.4
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@West Virginia
92%
8.3%
38
6
✓
MIA −22.5
–
–
Final
#8Michigan@#17Illinois
51%
49%
19
14
✓
MICH −0.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#12WisconsinUpset
6.9%
93%
17
14
✗
WIS −23.4
–
–
Final
Tulane@Mississippi State
11%
89%
22
66
✓
MSST −19.3
–
–
Final
#5Nebraska@Missouri
96%
4.3%
42
7
✓
NEB −27.9
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Jose State
69%
31%
42
10
✓
NEV −8.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
80%
20%
56
31
✓
UNM −14.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Northern Illinois
38%
62%
17
27
✓
NIU −4.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@IndianaUpset
17%
83%
20
7
✗
IU −15.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@#11Ohio State
25%
75%
14
48
✓
OSU −10.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@Kansas
43%
57%
20
17
✗
KU −2.1
–
–
Final
#9Washington@OregonUpset
70%
30%
20
31
✗
WASH −8.7
–
–
Final
Pacific@Arkansas State
48%
52%
30
16
✗
ARST −0.4
–
–
Final
#20Boston College@Rutgers
74%
26%
7
7
✓
BC −10.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Vanderbilt
52%
48%
19
16
✓
SC −1.4
–
–
Final
California@#25USC
30%
70%
0
61
✓
USC −7.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon State
37%
63%
35
29
✗
ORST −4.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Temple
86%
14%
49
42
✓
SYR −17.4
–
–
Final
SMU@Texas
6.7%
93%
20
42
✓
TEX −23.6
–
–
Final
Rice@#7Texas A&M
6.4%
94%
0
7
✓
TA&M −24.0
–
–
Final
TCU@Houston
77%
23%
31
10
✓
TCU −12.3
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas Tech
52%
48%
7
38
✗
BAY −1.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@Akron
81%
19%
48
25
✓
TOL −14.3
–
–
Final
#18Utah@#24Colorado State
49%
51%
45
31
✗
PK
–
–
Final
#23North Carolina@VirginiaUpset
44%
56%
10
34
✓
UVA −1.8
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#15Virginia Tech
5.8%
94%
7
45
✓
VT −24.9
–
–
Final
#16Washington State@Arizona State
75%
25%
28
21
✓
WSU −11.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
20%
80%
14
33
✓
WMU −12.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wyoming
45%
55%
35
52
✓
WYO −1.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 22 · TBD The Citadel at Army Army −21.2 91%
Sat, Oct 22 · TBD Jacksonville State at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −3.5 60%
Sat, Oct 22 · TBD Samford at Southern Miss Southern Miss −33.7 98%