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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1994

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 30

Wilder than 30% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 11.5 expected

  • Biggest shockWashington over Miami (FL)7.3% chance · won 38-20
  • Runner-upUNLV over Utah State23% chance · won 23-21
  • Runner-upTemple over Army26% chance · won 23-20

Upsets

Thu, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
West Virginia@#15Virginia Tech
14%
86%
6
34
✓
VT −17.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 43 games

Final
Air Force@UTEP
60%
40%
47
7
✓
AF −4.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@#25Alabama
4.3%
96%
10
20
✓
ALA −28.6
–
–
Final
#13Arizona@Stanford
69%
31%
34
10
✓
ARIZ −8.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Ball State
21%
79%
14
21
✓
BALL −13.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Pittsburgh
76%
24%
21
9
✓
BC −11.6
–
–
Final
#24Bowling Green@Eastern Michigan
94%
6.3%
30
13
✓
BGSU −25.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@BYU
20%
80%
47
49
✓
BYU −14.0
–
–
Final
Arizona State@California
38%
62%
21
25
✓
CAL −5.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Central Michigan
24%
76%
0
45
✓
CMU −11.7
–
–
Final
#6Colorado@#9Michigan
50%
50%
27
26
✗
MICH −0.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Colorado State
26%
74%
17
19
✓
CSU −11.0
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
65%
35%
27
12
✓
DUKE −6.1
–
–
Final
#14North Carolina@#2Florida State
10%
90%
18
31
✓
FSU −21.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
34%
66%
31
16
✗
HAW −6.8
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#22Georgia
30%
70%
14
17
✓
UGA −8.8
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Kansas State
19%
81%
0
35
✓
KSU −14.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Maryland
34%
66%
7
31
✓
MD −7.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Memphis
40%
60%
15
16
✓
MEM −4.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Michigan State
16%
84%
10
45
✓
MSU −16.8
–
–
Final
#11Tennessee@Mississippi StateUpset
73%
27%
21
24
✗
TENN −10.1
–
–
Final
Pacific@#5Nebraska
0.1%
>99%
21
70
✓
NEB −53.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Nevada
24%
76%
22
34
✓
NEV −12.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@Utah StateUpset
23%
77%
23
21
✗
USU −12.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@New Mexico State
33%
67%
17
24
✓
NMSU −7.5
–
–
Final
Purdue@#8Notre Dame
17%
84%
21
39
✓
ND −16.3
–
–
Final
Houston@#10Ohio State
0.7%
99%
0
52
✓
OSU −40.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Oklahoma State
23%
77%
10
17
✓
OKST −12.5
–
–
Final
Iowa@Oregon
55%
44%
18
40
✗
IOWA −2.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#4Penn State
3.4%
97%
27
55
✓
PSU −30.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Iowa State
64%
36%
28
18
✓
RICE −5.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@San Jose State
58%
42%
28
31
✗
UL −3.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Kentucky
66%
34%
23
9
✓
SC −6.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@#19USC
36%
64%
27
37
✓
USC −6.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@East Carolina
61%
39%
21
18
✓
SYR −4.4
–
–
Final
Temple@Army
26%
74%
23
20
✗
ARMY −10.6
–
–
Final
Texas@TCU
51%
49%
34
18
✓
TEX −0.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#7Texas A&M
8.3%
92%
17
41
✓
TA&M −23.1
–
–
Final
SMU@Texas Tech
23%
77%
7
35
✓
TTU −12.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Utah
22%
78%
7
41
✓
UTAH −12.7
–
–
Final
#16Washington@#1Miami (FL)Upset
7.3%
93%
38
20
✗
MIA −24.2
–
–
Final
#18Washington State@UCLA
46%
54%
21
0
✗
UCLA −1.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Western Michigan
5.4%
95%
6
19
✓
WMU −26.7
–
–
Final
#12Indiana@#21Wisconsin
53%
47%
13
62
✗
IU −1.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD East Tennessee State at #17 Auburn Auburn −50.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD UAB at Kansas Kansas −24.5 93%
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD Western Carolina at NC State NC State −62.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 24 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −23.8 92%