The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1994

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 22

Wilder than 22% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockTulane over Rice11% chance · won 15-13
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Stanford19% chance · won 41-41
  • Runner-upTCU over New Mexico26% chance · won 44-29

Upsets

Thu, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
78%
22%
42
16
✓
NEB −12.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
24%
76%
7
17
✓
ALA −10.4
–
–
Final
3.1%
97%
0
44
✓
ARIZ −28.8
–
–
Final
6.7%
93%
12
44
✓
AUB −22.9
–
–
Final
73%
27%
54
20
✓
BAY −10.0
–
–
Final
80%
20%
45
0
✓
BGSU −13.6
–
–
Final
66%
34%
45
21
✓
BYU −7.0
–
–
Final
38%
62%
23
35
✓
CMU −4.1
–
–
Final
21%
79%
16
41
✓
CSU −11.8
–
–
Final
24%
76%
10
13
✓
DUKE −10.6
–
–
Final
10%
90%
7
73
✓
FLA −19.0
–
–
Final
98%
1.5%
52
20
✓
FSU −34.2
–
–
Final
52%
48%
16
36
✗
ORE −1.2
–
–
Final
27%
73%
0
42
✓
ILL −8.8
–
–
Final
8.0%
92%
14
35
✓
IU −21.4
–
–
Final
12%
88%
9
37
✓
IOWA −17.9
–
–
Final
29%
71%
10
17
✓
KU −7.9
–
–
Final
24%
76%
9
29
✓
UL −10.6
–
–
Final
55%
45%
24
44
✗
MSST −2.4
–
–
Final
50%
50%
7
32
✓
HOU −0.5
–
–
Final
38%
62%
42
18
✗
TLSA −4.1
–
–
Final
86%
14%
47
10
✓
MIA −17.0
–
–
Final
26%
74%
26
24
✗
ND −9.2
–
–
Final
Pacific@Minnesota
17%
83%
7
33
✓
MINN −14.4
–
–
Final
20%
80%
0
18
✓
NEV −12.6
–
–
Final
52%
48%
29
12
✓
NCSU −1.1
–
–
Final
45%
55%
31
44
✓
ORST −1.6
–
–
Final
22%
78%
14
38
✓
PSU −11.6
–
–
Final
34%
66%
16
30
✓
PITT −5.6
–
–
Final
15%
85%
17
51
✓
PUR −15.4
–
–
Final
51%
49%
12
17
✗
WVU −0.9
–
–
Final
37%
63%
20
22
✓
SDSU −4.6
–
–
Final
48%
52%
0
14
✓
SC −0.2
–
–
Final
19%
81%
41
41
✗
STAN −12.9
–
–
Final
53%
47%
34
19
✓
SYR −1.7
–
–
Final
62%
38%
41
23
✓
TENN −5.2
–
–
Final
47%
53%
16
30
✓
TEX −0.6
–
–
Final
32%
68%
14
36
✓
TA&M −6.5
–
–
Final
26%
74%
44
29
✗
UNM −9.5
–
–
Final
11%
89%
15
13
✗
RICE −18.6
–
–
Final
5.7%
94%
10
17
✓
UCLA −24.2
–
–
Final
85%
15%
47
10
✓
UVA −16.5
–
–
Final
68%
32%
24
14
✓
VT −7.8
–
–
Final
57%
43%
16
25
✗
OSU −3.2
–
–
Final
43%
57%
3
24
✓
WSU −2.0
–
–
Final
5.0%
95%
0
56
✓
WIS −25.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Sep 8 · TBD Western Illinois at Western Michigan Western Michigan −25.8 95%
Sat, Sep 10 · TBD Holy Cross at Army Army −21.0 92%
Sat, Sep 10 · TBD Western Carolina at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −39.1 99%
Sat, Sep 10 · TBD Southern Illinois at Ole Miss Ole Miss −43.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · TBD Eastern Illinois at UTEP UTEP −17.1 87%
Sat, Sep 10 · TBD Idaho State at Utah Utah −33.5 98%
Sat, Sep 10 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Appalachian State −0.3 49%