The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 15 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 11 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 66

Wilder than 66% of weeks in the archive.

3 upsets against 2.4 expected

  • Biggest shockVirginia Tech over Miami (FL)18% chance · won 16-10
  • Runner-upToledo over Miami (OH)26% chance · won 35-27
  • Runner-upHawaii over Michigan State45% chance · won 41-38

Upsets

Thu, Dec 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Toledo@Miami (OH)
26%
74%
35
27
✗
M-OH −9.8
–
–

Sat, Dec 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
Pittsburgh@USF
55%
45%
43
14
✓
PITT −2.4
–
–
Final
#15Virginia Tech@#4Miami (FL)Upset
18%
82%
16
10
✗
MIA −14.2
–
–
Final
Army@Navy
15%
85%
13
42
✓
NAVY −16.3
–
–
Final
#7Louisville@Tulane
92%
8.0%
55
7
✓
LOU −22.9
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
#1USC@UCLA
81%
19%
29
24
✓
USC −14.7
–
–
Final
#8Auburn@Tennessee
60%
40%
38
28
✓
AUB −4.5
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#3California@Southern Miss
87%
13%
26
16
✓
CAL −18.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@#2Oklahoma
4.6%
95%
3
42
✓
OU −26.6
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Michigan State@Hawaii
55%
45%
38
41
✗
MSU −2.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Dec 4 · 12:00 AM ET FIU at Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic −19.4 89%