The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 51

Wilder than 51% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 12.8 expected

  • Biggest shockEastern Illinois over Eastern Michigan15% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upFlorida A&M over Tennessee State17% chance · won 21-15
  • Runner-upUSF over TCU19% chance · won 45-44

Upsets

Thu, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Akron@Kent State
30%
70%
24
19
✗
KENT −8.8
–
–
Final
#2Miami (FL)@Houston
93%
7.3%
38
13
✓
MIA −24.0
–
–

Fri, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@Northern Illinois
50%
50%
17
34
✓
NIU −0.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
BYU@#12Boise State
6.0%
94%
27
28
✓
BOIS −25.9
–
–

Sat, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
Kentucky@#19Florida
15%
85%
3
20
✓
FLA −17.2
–
–
Final
Army@UConn
9.8%
90%
3
40
✓
CONN −21.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Indiana
46%
54%
30
20
✗
IU −1.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@Duke
71%
29%
55
21
✓
MD −8.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@Wake Forest
48%
52%
14
17
✓
WAKE −1.0
–
–
Final
NC State@#13Virginia TechUpset
20%
80%
17
16
✗
VT −14.0
–
–
Final
#6Purdue@Illinois
89%
11%
38
30
✓
PUR −20.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#9LSU
2.5%
98%
0
51
✓
LSU −32.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Navy
17%
83%
26
29
✓
NAVY −16.0
–
–
Final
#23Louisville@North Carolina
73%
27%
34
0
✓
LOU −9.9
–
–

Afternoon 11 games

Final
Air Force@#10Utah
9.1%
91%
35
49
✓
UTAH −22.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Wyoming
39%
61%
32
37
✓
WYO −4.8
–
–
Final
Alabama@#11Arkansas
24%
76%
10
27
✓
ARK −11.7
–
–
Final
Washington State@Arizona
78%
22%
20
19
✓
WSU −12.7
–
–
Final
Clemson@#5Florida State
9.0%
91%
22
41
✓
FSU −22.4
–
–
Final
Washington@Notre Dame
18%
82%
3
38
✓
ND −15.4
–
–
Final
Iowa@#15Michigan
24%
76%
17
30
✓
MICH −11.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#7Virginia
10%
90%
10
31
✓
UVA −21.0
–
–
Final
#22Texas Tech@Kansas
49%
51%
31
30
✗
KU −0.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@Oregon
2.8%
97%
10
48
✓
ORE −31.8
–
–
Final
Penn State@Wisconsin
36%
64%
3
16
✓
WIS −6.2
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
Memphis@UAB
40%
60%
28
35
✓
UAB −4.2
–
–
Final
#1USC@Stanford
82%
18%
31
28
✓
USC −14.9
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@East Carolina
66%
34%
24
19
✓
CIN −6.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Ohio
21%
79%
0
34
✓
OHIO −13.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@Baylor
50%
50%
14
37
✓
BAY −0.2
–
–
Final
Rice@#4Texas
5.0%
95%
13
35
✓
TEX −27.4
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana
49%
51%
17
24
✓
UL −0.6
–
–
Final
Troy@South Carolina
19%
80%
7
17
✓
SC −14.4
–
–
Final
USF@TCUUpset
19%
81%
45
44
✗
TCU −14.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#24Tennessee
12%
88%
17
42
✓
TENN −20.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Toledo
33%
67%
17
45
✓
TOL −7.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
46%
54%
28
21
✗
ULM −1.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
64%
36%
38
3
✓
UNM −6.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#25Minnesota
17%
83%
17
43
✓
MINN −16.1
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Diego State
34%
66%
10
27
✓
SDSU −6.9
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Oregon State@#21Arizona State
31%
69%
14
27
✓
ASU −8.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@UNLVUpset
22%
78%
31
21
✗
UNLV −13.1
–
–

Sun, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
46%
54%
14
41
✓
BALL −1.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@SMU
49%
51%
13
36
✓
SMU −0.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Tulane
76%
24%
32
14
✓
USM −11.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 25 · 12:00 AM ET Tennessee State at Florida A&M Tennessee State −10.1 73%
Sat, Sep 25 · 2:30 PM ET The Citadel at #18 Auburn Auburn −49.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 25 · 3:00 PM ET Montana State vs Colorado State Colorado State −26.9 95%
Sat, Sep 25 · 3:00 PM ET Tennessee State vs Florida A&M Tennessee State −16.1 84%
Sat, Sep 25 · 7:00 PM ET Missouri State vs Tulsa Tulsa −3.0 57%
Sat, Sep 25 · 1:00 PM ET Furman at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −37.0 99%
Sat, Sep 25 · 4:00 PM ET James Madison at #20 West Virginia West Virginia −28.6 96%
Sat, Sep 25 · 6:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −17.4 85%