Week 11 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

No games match.

Tue, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Toledo@Miami (OH)

23%
77%

16
23

✓

M-OH −11.6

–

–

Wed, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

USF@UABUpset

12%
88%

45
20

✗

UAB −18.1

–

–

Thu, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

#9Louisville@Memphis

71%
29%

56
49

✓

LOU −9.1

–

–

Fri, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Marshall@Akron

67%
33%

28
31

✗

MRSH −7.5

–

–

Late night 1 game

Final

North Texas@Louisiana

43%
57%

27
17

✗

UL −2.3

–

–

Sat, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final

Duke@#7Florida State

1.5%
98%

7
29

✓

FSU −34.5

–

–

Final

Ohio State@Michigan State

39%
61%

32
19

✗

MSU −4.0

–

–

Final

Georgia Tech@NC StateUpset

22%
78%

24
14

✗

NCSU −11.8

–

–

Final

#17Virginia Tech@North Carolina

72%
28%

27
24

✓

VT −9.7

–

–

Final

Pittsburgh@Syracuse

33%
67%

31
38

✓

SYR −6.5

–

–

Final

Northwestern@Penn State

26%
74%

14
7

✗

PSU −9.7

–

–

Final

#10Georgia@Kentucky

86%
14%

62
17

✓

UGA −17.9

–

–

Final

Kansas State@Missouri

30%
70%

35
24

✗

MIZ −7.8

–

–

Final

#22Arkansas@South CarolinaUpset

43%
57%

32
35

✓

SC −2.3

–

–

Final

Western Michigan@Bowling Green

1.7%
98%

0
52

✓

BGSU −33.8

–

–

Final

Temple@#20West Virginia

2.3%
98%

21
42

✓

WVU −31.6

–

–

Final

Air Force@Army

56%
44%

31
22

✓

AF −3.0

–

–

Final

Kent State@Buffalo

62%
38%

33
7

✓

KENT −5.2

–

–

Final

Colorado@Kansas

29%
71%

30
21

✗

KU −8.5

–

–

Afternoon 22 games

Final

Nebraska@Iowa State

59%
41%

27
34

✗

NEB −4.0

–

–

Final

Florida@Vanderbilt

76%
24%

34
17

✓

FLA −11.8

–

–

Final

Indiana@Illinois

43%
57%

22
26

✓

ILL −2.5

–

–

Final

Baylor@#18Texas Tech

3.4%
97%

17
42

✓

TTU −28.8

–

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@Troy

20%
80%

6
24

✓

TROY −13.0

–

–

Final

Fresno State@Rice

57%
43%

52
14

✓

FRES −3.2

–

–

Final

San Diego State@BYU

24%
76%

16
49

✓

BYU −11.0

–

–

Final

Tulsa@SMU

69%
31%

35
41

✗

TLSA −8.4

–

–

Final

Cincinnati@Southern MissUpset

22%
78%

52
24

✗

USM −12.0

–

–

Final

Oregon@#2California

4.2%
96%

27
28

✓

CAL −27.4

–

–

Final

Washington State@UCLAUpset

22%
78%

31
29

✗

UCLA −12.1

–

–

Final

Rutgers@Boston College

9.0%
91%

10
21

✓

BC −21.1

–

–

Final

#3Oklahoma@#24Texas A&M

67%
33%

42
35

✓

OU −7.7

–

–

Final

Maryland@#11Virginia

18%
82%

0
16

✓

UVA −14.2

–

–

Final

Arizona@Washington

31%
69%

23
13

✗

WASH −7.6

–

–

Final

Minnesota@#25Wisconsin

31%
69%

14
38

✓

WIS −7.5

–

–

Final

#12Purdue@#23Iowa

44%
56%

21
23

✓

IOWA −2.1

–

–

Final

Notre Dame@#21TennesseeUpset

26%
74%

17
13

✗

TENN −10.0

–

–

Final

Ohio@UCF

50%
50%

17
16

✓

OHIO −0.6

–

–

Final

Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan

38%
62%

58
61

✓

EMU −4.4

–

–

Final

Arkansas State@Idaho

59%
41%

31
45

✗

ARST −4.0

–

–

Final

East Carolina@Houston

15%
85%

24
34

✓

HOU −16.0

–

–

Prime time 8 games

Final

Stanford@#19Arizona State

19%
81%

31
34

✓

ASU −13.5

–

–

Final

Mississippi State@Alabama

5.5%
94%

14
30

✓

ALA −25.2

–

–

Final

#15Oklahoma State@#5Texas

19%
81%

35
56

✓

TEX −13.8

–

–

Final

Wyoming@UNLV

43%
57%

53
45

✗

UNLV −2.4

–

–

Final

Navy@Tulane

59%
41%

10
42

✗

NAVY −4.2

–

–

Final

Utah State@Louisiana-Monroe

43%
57%

25
32

✓

ULM −2.4

–

–

Final

Clemson@#4Miami (FL)Upset

4.9%
95%

24
17

✗

MIA −26.1

–

–

Final

Middle Tennessee@New Mexico State

51%
49%

10
44

✗

MTSU −0.7

–

–

Late night 3 games

Final

San Jose State@Nevada

14%
86%

24
42

✓

NEV −16.8

–

–

Final

Colorado State@#6Utah

4.4%
96%

31
63

✓

UTAH −27.0

–

–

Final

#1USC@Oregon State

81%
19%

28
20

✓

USC −14.6

–

–

Sun, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final

Louisiana Tech@Hawaii

29%
71%

23
34

✓

HAW −8.3

–

–