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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 22

Wilder than 22% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockMaine over Mississippi State12% chance · won 9-7
  • Runner-upFlorida Atlantic over Middle Tennessee28% chance · won 27-20
  • Runner-upNorth Carolina over Georgia Tech32% chance · won 34-13

Upsets

Sat, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
San Diego State@#10Michigan
7.8%
92%
21
24
✓
MICH −23.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Syracuse
38%
62%
7
19
✓
SYR −5.3
–
–
Final
UCF@Penn State
8.1%
92%
13
37
✓
PSU −23.3
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Pittsburgh
33%
67%
24
17
✗
PITT −7.2
–
–
Final
Duke@#13Virginia Tech
7.4%
93%
17
41
✓
VT −24.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@#16West Virginia
31%
69%
16
19
✓
WVU −8.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Iowa State
50%
50%
41
48
✓
ISU −0.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
15%
85%
23
26
✓
MISS −17.5
–
–
Final
TCU@Texas Tech
34%
66%
35
70
✓
TTU −6.8
–
–
Final
Marshall@#15Georgia
19%
81%
3
13
✓
UGA −14.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#2Miami (FL)
3.4%
97%
0
48
✓
MIA −30.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@Northwestern
55%
45%
17
20
✗
KU −1.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Missouri
11%
89%
0
48
✓
MIZ −20.8
–
–
Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
18%
82%
20
40
✓
M-OH −15.5
–
–
Final
Florida A&MvsTemple
5.7%
94%
7
38
✓
TEM −26.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Illinois
35%
65%
27
30
✓
ILL −6.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Kansas State
8.5%
92%
20
40
✓
KSU −22.8
–
–

Afternoon 10 games

Final
Akron@#11Virginia
4.5%
96%
0
51
✓
UVA −28.1
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Middle Tennessee
28%
72%
27
20
✗
MTSU −9.9
–
–
Final
#8LSU@#14Auburn
43%
57%
9
10
✓
AUB −3.0
–
–
Final
#24Ohio State@NC State
43%
57%
22
14
✗
NCSU −3.1
–
–
Final
Oregon@#3Oklahoma
5.5%
94%
7
31
✓
OU −26.6
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Arizona
79%
21%
9
7
✓
WIS −13.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Oregon State
26%
74%
7
17
✓
ORST −10.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@North Carolina
68%
32%
13
34
✗
GT −7.7
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
54%
46%
42
32
✓
TOL −1.4
–
–
Final
UAB@#7Florida State
13%
87%
7
34
✓
FSU −18.8
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
North Texas@Colorado
15%
85%
21
52
✓
COLO −17.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Kentucky
42%
58%
32
51
✓
UK −3.6
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Michigan State
43%
57%
31
24
✗
MSU −3.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Rutgers
38%
62%
21
29
✓
RUTG −5.1
–
–
Final
SMU@#22Oklahoma State
2.2%
98%
7
59
✓
OKST −33.5
–
–
Final
Navy@Tulsa
40%
60%
29
0
✗
TLSA −4.2
–
–
Final
Clemson@Texas A&M
45%
55%
6
27
✓
TA&M −2.2
–
–
Final
UCLA@Washington
47%
53%
37
31
✗
WASH −1.3
–
–
Final
#23Utah@Utah State
83%
17%
48
6
✓
UTAH −15.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@Arkansas State
79%
21%
47
35
✓
MEM −13.2
–
–
Final
#12Arkansas@Louisiana-Monroe
95%
4.8%
49
20
✓
ARK −27.5
–
–
Final
USF@South Carolina
18%
82%
3
34
✓
SC −15.5
–
–
Final
Troy@New Mexico State
64%
36%
18
22
✗
TROY −5.8
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Nevada
12%
88%
13
38
✓
NEV −19.1
–
–
Final
#9Boise State@UTEP
94%
6.3%
47
31
✓
BOIS −25.3
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
#19Iowa@Arizona StateUpset
51%
49%
7
44
✗
IOWA −0.3
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Colorado State
50%
50%
34
16
✓
CSU −0.1
–
–
Final
#1USC@BYU
92%
7.8%
42
10
✓
USC −23.4
–
–
Final
Air Force@UNLV
32%
68%
27
10
✗
UNLV −7.7
–
–
Final
Washington State@Idaho
94%
6.3%
49
8
✓
WSU −25.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UConn@Boston College
20%
80%
7
27
✓
BC −13.9
–
–

Sun, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Hawaii@Rice
49%
51%
29
41
✓
RICE −0.6
–
–
Final
Army@Houston
14%
86%
21
35
✓
HOU −17.9
–
–
Final
#20Florida@#18Tennessee
36%
64%
28
30
✓
TENN −6.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 18 · 5:00 PM ET Morgan State at San Jose State San Jose State −13.2 79%
Sat, Sep 18 · 6:30 PM ET North Carolina A&T at Wake Forest Wake Forest −31.3 97%
Sat, Sep 18 · 10:00 PM ET Portland State at #17 Fresno State Fresno State −44.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 18 · 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina at #21 Alabama Alabama −49.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 18 · 7:00 PM ET Maine at Mississippi State Mississippi State −19.5 88%
Sat, Sep 18 · 1:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Central Michigan Central Michigan −27.7 95%