The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 28 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 78

Wilder than 78% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 10.4 expected

  • Biggest shockTexas Tech over California23% chance · won 45-31
  • Runner-upWyoming over UCLA28% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upNavy over New Mexico33% chance · won 34-19

Upsets

Tue, Dec 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Southern MissvsNorth Texas
62%
38%
31
10
✓
USM −5.3
–
–

Tue, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
SyracusevsGeorgia Tech
46%
54%
14
51
✓
GT −1.0
–
–

Wed, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#24Bowling GreenvsMemphis
69%
31%
52
35
✓
BGSU −8.5
–
–

Thu, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
MarshallvsCincinnati
50%
50%
14
32
✓
MRSH −0.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
WyomingvsUCLA
28%
72%
24
21
✗
UCLA −8.9
–
–

Sat, Dec 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
HawaiivsUAB
40%
60%
59
40
✗
UAB −3.8
–
–

Mon, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
#12Virginiavs#22Fresno State
61%
39%
34
37
✗
UVA −5.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
ToledovsUConn
58%
42%
10
39
✗
TOL −3.6
–
–

Tue, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Miami (OH)vsIowa State
66%
34%
13
17
✗
M-OH −6.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Notre Damevs#25Oregon State
41%
59%
21
38
✓
ORST −3.3
–
–

Wed, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
ColoradovsUTEP
56%
44%
33
28
✓
COLO −2.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#20Oklahoma StatevsOhio StateUpset
54%
46%
7
33
✗
OKST −2.3
–
–

Thu, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Boston CollegevsNorth Carolina
65%
35%
37
24
✓
BC −6.6
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
New MexicovsNavy
67%
33%
19
34
✗
UNM −7.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#18Texas Techvs#3CaliforniaUpset
23%
77%
45
31
✗
CAL −11.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
TroyvsNorthern Illinois
48%
52%
21
34
✓
NIU −0.5
–
–

Fri, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
AlabamavsMinnesota
47%
53%
16
20
✓
MINN −0.8
–
–
Final
#23Arizona Statevs#15Purdue
37%
63%
27
23
✗
PUR −4.7
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#11Boise Statevs#5Louisville
34%
66%
40
44
✓
LOU −6.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#4Miami (FL)vs#16Florida
70%
30%
27
10
✓
MIA −8.9
–
–

Sat, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
Tennesseevs#21Texas A&MUpset
40%
60%
38
7
✗
TA&M −3.3
–
–
Final
#13GeorgiavsWisconsin
67%
33%
24
21
✓
UGA −7.6
–
–
Final
#9Florida StatevsWest Virginia
69%
31%
30
18
✓
FSU −8.2
–
–
Final
#14LSUvs#19Iowa
55%
45%
25
30
✗
LSU −2.6
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#17Michiganvs#6Texas
29%
71%
37
38
✓
TEX −8.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Pittsburghvs#7Utah
13%
87%
7
35
✓
UTAH −17.3
–
–

Mon, Jan 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#10Virginia Techvs#8Auburn
41%
59%
13
16
✓
AUB −3.1
–
–

Tue, Jan 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1USCvs#2Oklahoma
54%
46%
55
19
✓
USC −2.2
–
–