The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 60 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 80

Wilder than 80% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 11.6 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Hampshire over Rutgers3.3% chance · won 35-24
  • Runner-upColorado over Washington State17% chance · won 20-12
  • Runner-upIndiana over Oregon20% chance · won 30-24

Upsets

Thu, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Missouri@Troy
61%
39%
14
24
✗
MIZ −4.7
–
–

Fri, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
#19Oregon State@#14Boise State
31%
69%
34
53
✓
BOIS −7.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Duke@UConn
20%
80%
20
22
✓
CONN −12.7
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Northwestern
42%
58%
30
21
✗
NU −2.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Michigan State
4.5%
96%
7
24
✓
MSU −26.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@NebraskaUpset
23%
77%
21
17
✗
NEB −11.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Wisconsin
14%
86%
3
18
✓
WIS −16.5
–
–
Final
UCLA@Illinois
48%
52%
35
17
✗
ILL −0.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#11Iowa
3.2%
97%
10
17
✓
IOWA −28.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#13Kansas StateUpset
20%
80%
45
21
✗
KSU −12.3
–
–
Final
#25Auburn@Mississippi State
69%
31%
43
14
✓
AUB −8.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Florida
4.5%
96%
10
49
✓
FLA −26.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Virginia Tech
11%
89%
0
63
✓
VT −18.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@Army
80%
20%
52
21
✓
LOU −13.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@#7Purdue
3.2%
97%
7
59
✓
PUR −28.6
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
#4Michigan@Notre DameUpset
76%
24%
20
28
✗
MICH −11.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@#16Ohio State
15%
86%
21
24
✓
OSU −16.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Texas A&M
55%
44%
0
31
✗
WYO −2.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#12Virginia
3.9%
96%
24
56
✓
UVA −27.2
–
–
Final
Colorado@#18Washington StateUpset
17%
83%
20
12
✗
WSU −14.3
–
–
Final
#17Georgia@South Carolina
48%
52%
20
16
✗
SC −0.4
–
–
Final
Temple@#23Maryland
5.3%
95%
22
45
✓
MD −24.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Akron
43%
57%
31
24
✗
AKR −2.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Buffalo
64%
36%
37
17
✓
SYR −6.0
–
–
Final
#22West Virginia@UCF
83%
17%
45
20
✓
WVU −15.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#6California
1.8%
98%
14
41
✓
CAL −32.5
–
–
Final
Indiana@OregonUpset
20%
80%
30
24
✗
ORE −12.4
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
Wake Forest@East Carolina
75%
25%
31
17
✓
WAKE −10.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#21Oklahoma State
9.2%
91%
21
38
✓
OKST −20.2
–
–
Final
Houston@#3Oklahoma
3.8%
96%
13
63
✓
OU −27.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Pittsburgh
12%
88%
3
24
✓
PITT −17.5
–
–
Final
Florida AtlanticvsNorth Texas
36%
64%
20
13
✗
UNT −4.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
57%
43%
26
45
✗
M-OH −3.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Kansas
27%
73%
14
63
✓
KU −9.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana Tech
13%
87%
20
24
✓
LT −17.1
–
–
Final
SMU@TCU
7.0%
93%
0
44
✓
TCU −22.5
–
–
Final
Florida A&MvsTulane
3.1%
97%
19
39
✓
TULN −28.9
–
–
Final
Idaho@Utah State
6.9%
93%
7
14
✓
USU −22.7
–
–
Final
#2Texas@#10Arkansas
50%
50%
22
20
✓
TEX −0.7
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#24Alabama
26%
74%
7
28
✓
ALA −9.4
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Utah@Arizona
81%
19%
23
6
✓
UTAH −13.9
–
–
Final
BYU@Stanford
28%
72%
10
37
✓
STAN −8.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#20Florida State@#5Miami (FL)
22%
78%
10
16
✓
MIA −11.7
–
–

Sun, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Colorado State@#1USC
7.1%
93%
0
49
✓
USC −22.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#9LSU
1.3%
99%
3
53
✓
LSU −34.7
–
–
Final
Penn State@Boston College
40%
60%
7
21
✓
BC −3.4
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@New Mexico
49%
51%
24
27
✓
TTU −0.2
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@ClemsonUpset
20%
80%
28
24
✗
CLEM −12.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at USF USF −39.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 3:30 PM ET Illinois State vs #8 Minnesota Minnesota −55.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET New Hampshire vs Rutgers Rutgers −28.4 97%
Sat, Sep 11 · 6:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Bowling Green Bowling Green −38.8 99%
Sun, Sep 12 · TBD Chattanooga at Memphis Memphis −47.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Texas State vs Baylor Texas State −0.8 51%
Sat, Sep 11 · 2:07 PM ET Eastern Washington at Air Force Air Force −24.1 94%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Liberty at Kent State Kent State −13.8 82%
Sat, Sep 11 · 1:30 PM ET Northeastern at Navy Navy −27.4 96%
Sat, Sep 11 · 4:00 PM ET Sacramento State at Nevada Nevada −10.8 77%
Sat, Sep 11 · 4:00 PM ET Southern Illinois vs Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −24.8 95%
Sat, Sep 11 · 9:05 PM ET Weber State at UTEP UTEP −18.8 89%