Week 14 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 31 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 72

Wilder than 72% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 8.1 expected

Biggest shockSyracuse over Boston College14% chance · won 43-17
Runner-upTulane over TCU17% chance · won 35-31
Runner-upArizona over Arizona State21% chance · won 34-27

Upsets

Bowling Green 41, Toledo 49#24 Bowling Green lost to unranked Toledo
Arizona State 27, Arizona 34Arizona won; the model gave them 21% before kickoff
Syracuse 43, Boston College 17Syracuse won; the model gave them 14% before kickoff
Tulane 35, TCU 31Tulane won; the model gave them 17% before kickoff

Wed, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Kent State@

UCF

63%
37%

41
24

✓

KENT −5.9

–

Final

#24Bowling Green@

ToledoUpset

59%
41%

41
49

✗

BGSU −4.0

–

Thu, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final

UConn@

Rutgers

49%
51%

41
35

✗

CONN −0.3

–

Prime time 1 game

Final

West Virginia@

Pittsburgh

51%
49%

13
16

✗

WVU −0.9

–

Fri, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final

Colorado@

Nebraska

35%
65%

26
20

✗

NEB −5.5

–

Final

#19LSU@

#22Arkansas

36%
64%

43
14

✗

ARK −5.0

–

Afternoon 2 games

Final

#21Arizona State@

ArizonaUpset

79%
21%

27
34

✗

ASU −13.4

–

Final

#23Texas A&M@

#5Texas

15%
85%

13
26

✓

TEX −16.3

–

Sat, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final

Memphis@

USF

48%
52%

31
15

✗

USF −0.4

–

Final

Wake Forest@

Maryland

25%
75%

7
13

✓

MD −10.2

–

Final

Kentucky@

Tennessee

4.9%
95%

31
37

✓

TENN −26.1

–

Final

Missouri@

Iowa State

46%
54%

17
14

✗

ISU −1.1

–

Final

Syracuse@

#25Boston CollegeUpset

14%
86%

43
17

✗

BC −16.6

–

Final

East Carolina@

NC State

5.1%
95%

14
52

✓

NCSU −25.9

–

Final

#10Virginia@

#14Virginia Tech

39%
61%

10
24

✓

VT −3.8

–

Final

Mississippi State@

Ole Miss

19%
82%

3
20

✓

MISS −13.8

–

Final

Cincinnati@

#7Louisville

8.6%
91%

7
70

✓

LOU −21.5

–

Afternoon 6 games

Final

UTEP@

Tulsa

56%
44%

35
37

✗

UTEP −3.0

–

Final

UAB@

Southern Miss

35%
65%

21
26

✓

USM −5.8

–

Final

Tulane@

TCUUpset

17%
83%

35
31

✗

TCU −14.9

–

Final

Georgia Tech@

#11Georgia

11%
89%

13
19

✓

UGA −19.3

–

Final

#17Oklahoma State@

#20Texas Tech

36%
64%

15
31

✓

TTU −5.3

–

Final

Fresno State@

San Jose State

89%
11%

62
28

✓

FRES −20.0

–

Prime time 2 games

Final

#13Boise State@

Nevada

87%
13%

58
21

✓

BOIS −18.1

–

Final

Notre Dame@

#1USC

4.7%
95%

10
41

✓

USC −26.4

–

Late night 1 game

Final

Northwestern@

Hawaii

47%
53%

41
49

✓

HAW −0.8

–

Mon, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Louisiana Tech@

Rice

40%
60%

51
14

✗

RICE −3.5

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Nov 27 · 12:00 AM ET	Edward Waters at Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic −19.5	89%
Sat, Nov 27 · 12:00 AM ET	Florida A&M at FIU	FIU −15.5	84%
Sat, Nov 27 · 4:00 PM ET	Edward Waters vs Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic −13.4	81%
Sat, Nov 27 · 1:00 PM ET	Florida A&M at FIU	FIU −15.5	84%