The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 95

Wilder than 95% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 14.6 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia Tech over Maryland10% chance · won 20-7
  • Runner-upUTEP over Fresno State11% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upOle Miss over South Carolina12% chance · won 31-28

Upsets

Thu, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Houston@Southern Miss
8.8%
91%
29
35
✓
USM −22.6
–
–
Final
Clemson@#10Virginia
10%
90%
10
30
✓
UVA −20.9
–
–

Fri, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
UNLV@BYUUpset
24%
76%
24
20
✗
BYU −11.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Indiana@Northwestern
21%
79%
24
31
✓
NU −13.5
–
–
Final
Illinois@Michigan State
21%
79%
25
38
✓
MSU −13.3
–
–
Final
#21Minnesota@#12Michigan
31%
69%
24
27
✓
MICH −8.5
–
–
Final
#22Virginia Tech@Wake Forest
51%
49%
17
10
✓
VT −0.4
–
–
Final
#6Texas@#3Oklahoma
28%
72%
0
12
✓
OU −9.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Temple
67%
33%
27
22
✓
PITT −7.2
–
–
Final
Alabama@Kentucky
54%
46%
45
17
✓
ALA −1.7
–
–
Final
Marshall@Ohio
57%
43%
16
13
✓
MRSH −3.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Army
75%
25%
29
48
✗
CIN −10.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Central Michigan
84%
16%
38
14
✓
BGSU −16.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#18South CarolinaUpset
12%
88%
31
28
✗
SC −19.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@East Carolina
43%
57%
25
27
✓
ECU −3.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
12%
88%
27
47
✓
M-OH −19.5
–
–
Final
Stanford@Notre Dame
37%
63%
15
23
✓
ND −5.8
–
–
Final
UAB@Mississippi State
75%
25%
27
13
✓
UAB −10.9
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Arkansas State@Middle Tennessee
24%
76%
17
45
✓
MTSU −11.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wyoming
36%
64%
10
20
✓
WYO −6.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#16Auburn
8.6%
91%
7
52
✓
AUB −22.7
–
–
Final
#4California@#2USC
27%
73%
17
23
✓
USC −10.3
–
–
Final
#13Oklahoma State@Colorado
54%
46%
42
14
✓
OKST −1.6
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#9GeorgiaUpset
18%
82%
19
14
✗
UGA −15.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#17MarylandUpset
10%
90%
20
7
✗
MD −21.1
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Ohio State
29%
71%
24
13
✗
OSU −9.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Washington
20%
80%
6
21
✓
WASH −13.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball StateUpset
17%
83%
31
24
✗
BALL −15.7
–
–
Final
#5Purdue@Penn State
70%
30%
20
13
✓
PUR −8.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Idaho
44%
56%
16
14
✗
Idaho −2.5
–
–
Final
Oregon@Washington StateUpset
17%
83%
41
38
✗
WSU −15.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Akron
23%
77%
21
44
✓
AKR −12.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@UCF
81%
19%
30
28
✓
NIU −14.3
–
–
Final
NC State@North Carolina
70%
30%
24
30
✗
NCSU −8.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@UCLA
12%
88%
17
37
✓
UCLA −19.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Air Force
46%
54%
23
28
✓
AF −1.8
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Texas A&M@Iowa State
64%
36%
34
3
✓
TA&M −6.0
–
–
Final
#7Florida State@Syracuse
74%
26%
17
13
✓
FSU −10.4
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#23Texas Tech
29%
71%
10
70
✓
TTU −9.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
61%
39%
59
33
✓
TOL −4.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Kansas
33%
67%
28
31
✓
KU −7.5
–
–
Final
#14LSU@#19Florida
39%
61%
24
21
✗
FLA −4.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@New Mexico State
50%
50%
32
35
✗
NMSU −0.1
–
–
Final
North Texas@Utah State
41%
59%
31
23
✗
USU −4.0
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Missouri@Baylor
77%
23%
30
10
✓
MIZ −12.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@Fresno StateUpset
11%
89%
24
21
✗
FRES −20.4
–
–

Sun, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Nevada@Hawaii
18%
82%
26
48
✓
HAW −15.1
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Rutgers@Vanderbilt
30%
70%
37
34
✗
VAN −8.9
–
–
Final
SMU@Rice
17%
83%
10
44
✓
RICE −15.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 9 · 12:00 AM ET Florida Atlantic at Texas State Florida Atlantic −7.3 67%
Sat, Oct 9 · 12:00 AM ET Nicholls at Florida A&M Florida A&M −9.2 71%
Sat, Oct 9 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls vs Florida A&M Florida A&M −3.0 57%
Sat, Oct 9 · 1:30 PM ET Florida Atlantic vs Texas State Florida Atlantic −13.5 79%