The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

Chaos 1

Wilder than 1% of weeks in the archive.

7 upsets against 14.8 expected

  • Biggest shockFlorida Atlantic over Hawaii18% chance · won 35-28
  • Runner-upTroy over Marshall27% chance · won 17-15
  • Runner-upMemphis over Ole Miss31% chance · won 20-13

Upsets

Thu, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Buffalo@Eastern Michigan
42%
58%
34
37
✓
EMU −2.7
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Utah
26%
74%
21
41
✓
UTAH −9.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@TCU
33%
67%
45
48
✓
TCU −6.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
UTEP@Arizona State
18%
82%
9
41
✓
ASU −14.0
–
–

Fri, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Boston College@Ball State
66%
34%
19
11
✓
BC −7.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
Miami (OH)@#7Michigan
17%
83%
10
43
✓
MICH −14.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#13Ohio State
23%
77%
6
27
✓
OSU −10.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#2Oklahoma
19%
81%
24
40
✓
OU −13.2
–
–
Final
#25Virginia@Temple
67%
33%
44
14
✓
UVA −7.1
–
–
Final
UCF@Wisconsin
19%
81%
6
34
✓
WIS −13.0
–
–
Final
#17California@Air Force
54%
46%
56
14
✓
CAL −2.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@#9Iowa
14%
86%
7
39
✓
IOWA −16.1
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Vanderbilt
55%
45%
31
6
✓
SC −2.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#21Auburn
5.5%
94%
0
31
✓
AUB −24.5
–
–

Afternoon 11 games

Final
Oklahoma State@UCLA
52%
48%
31
20
✓
OKST −1.3
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Rutgers
54%
46%
14
19
✗
MSU −1.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Penn State
33%
67%
10
48
✓
PSU −6.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Clemson
33%
67%
30
37
✓
CLEM −6.2
–
–
Final
Troy@Marshall
27%
73%
17
15
✗
MRSH −9.0
–
–
Final
#24Oregon State@#3LSU
28%
72%
21
22
✓
LSU −8.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#11Maryland
26%
74%
20
23
✓
MD −9.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@West Virginia
16%
84%
23
56
✓
WVU −15.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@Mississippi State
46%
54%
7
28
✓
MSST −0.9
–
–
Final
Florida A&M@Illinois
5.5%
94%
13
52
✓
ILL −24.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Navy
33%
67%
12
27
✓
NAVY −6.2
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Baylor@UAB
29%
71%
14
56
✓
UAB −8.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#14Arkansas
17%
84%
13
63
✓
ARK −14.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Indiana
36%
64%
10
41
✓
IU −5.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Missouri
14%
86%
20
52
✓
MIZ −16.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@#23Ole MissUpset
31%
69%
20
13
✗
MISS −7.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@#6Texas
19%
81%
0
65
✓
TEX −12.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@Alabama
21%
79%
17
48
✓
ALA −12.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Kansas
41%
59%
3
21
✓
KU −3.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@#10Boise State
2.8%
97%
7
65
✓
BOIS −29.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@#16Minnesota
29%
71%
21
63
✓
MINN −8.0
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@BYU
51%
49%
17
20
✗
ND −1.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
San Jose State@Stanford
29%
71%
3
43
✓
STAN −8.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#12Washington State@New Mexico
53%
46%
21
17
✓
WSU −1.9
–
–

Sun, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Florida AtlanticvsHawaiiUpset
18%
82%
35
28
✗
HAW −13.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#22Purdue
32%
68%
0
51
✓
PUR −6.8
–
–

Afternoon 3 games

Final
Kentucky@Louisville
36%
64%
0
28
✓
LOU −5.2
–
–
Final
Houston@Rice
44%
56%
7
10
✓
RICE −1.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Washington
36%
64%
35
16
✗
WASH −4.8
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Colorado State@Colorado
44%
56%
24
27
✓
COLO −1.7
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@SMU
78%
22%
27
13
✓
TTU −12.6
–
–

Mon, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Nevada@Louisiana Tech
40%
60%
21
38
✓
LT −3.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UNLV@#18Tennessee
25%
75%
17
42
✓
TENN −9.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Fri, Sep 3 · TBD UT Martin at Western Michigan Western Michigan −32.9 98%
Sat, Sep 4 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona Arizona −29.8 97%
Sat, Sep 4 · 9:00 PM ET Idaho State vs San Diego State San Diego State −25.4 95%
Sat, Sep 4 · 12:00 PM ET Murray State vs UConn UConn −37.4 99%
Sat, Sep 4 · 1:00 PM ET Samford at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −35.5 99%
Sat, Sep 4 · 3:00 PM ET Georgia Southern at #8 Georgia Georgia −26.9 96%
Sat, Sep 4 · 2:00 PM ET Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State −25.9 95%
Sat, Sep 4 · 6:00 PM ET Richmond at NC State NC State −29.4 97%
Sat, Sep 4 · 1:35 PM ET William & Mary at North Carolina North Carolina −32.2 98%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET Western Illinois at #20 Nebraska Nebraska −30.9 98%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET VMI at Ohio Ohio −20.0 91%
Sun, Sep 5 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana Louisiana −19.9 90%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:10 PM ET Western Kentucky at #5 Kansas State Kansas State −20.4 91%
Sat, Sep 4 · 3:00 PM ET Appalachian State vs Wyoming Appalachian State −2.3 55%