The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 66

Wilder than 66% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 12.1 expected

  • Biggest shockMississippi State over Florida9.0% chance · won 38-31
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over Florida Atlantic17% chance · won 17-13
  • Runner-upOregon over Stanford21% chance · won 16-13

Upsets

Thu, Oct 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Syracuse@#20West Virginia
15%
85%
6
27
✓
WVU −15.9
–
–

Fri, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
41%
59%
7
30
✓
CSU −3.0
–
–

Sat, Oct 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Temple@UConn
9.8%
90%
31
45
✓
CONN −20.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@Ohio State
12%
88%
7
30
✓
OSU −18.0
–
–
Final
Iowa@Penn State
48%
52%
6
4
✗
PSU −0.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Pittsburgh
23%
77%
17
41
✓
PITT −11.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@Clemson
42%
58%
7
10
✓
CLEM −2.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#23Wisconsin
12%
88%
12
24
✓
WIS −18.0
–
–
Final
#17Florida@Mississippi StateUpset
91%
9.0%
31
38
✗
FLA −21.9
–
–
Final
#13Virginia@Duke
88%
12%
37
16
✓
UVA −19.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@#3Oklahoma
6.9%
93%
10
41
✓
OU −23.4
–
–
Final
Colorado@#18Texas A&M
14%
86%
26
29
✓
TA&M −17.1
–
–
Final
Rice@Navy
24%
76%
13
14
✓
NAVY −10.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@Minnesota
8.0%
92%
0
45
✓
MINN −22.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
70%
30%
41
16
✓
BGSU −9.0
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Kansas State
34%
66%
21
45
✓
KSU −6.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#10Auburn
3.8%
96%
10
42
✓
AUB −28.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@Notre Dame
32%
68%
24
23
✗
ND −6.8
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
UTEP@Louisiana Tech
34%
66%
44
27
✗
LT −6.2
–
–
Final
Idaho@Middle Tennessee
8.2%
92%
14
34
✓
MTSU −21.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
80%
20%
59
38
✓
NIU −14.2
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Baylor
48%
52%
26
25
✗
BAY −0.3
–
–
Final
BYU@Air Force
33%
67%
41
24
✗
AF −6.4
–
–
Final
UCLA@#19Arizona State
22%
78%
42
48
✓
ASU −11.6
–
–
Final
#16Oklahoma State@Missouri
45%
55%
20
17
✗
MIZ −1.4
–
–
Final
#5Florida State@Wake Forest
75%
25%
20
17
✓
FSU −11.3
–
–
Final
#15Michigan@#7Purdue
27%
73%
16
14
✗
PUR −9.3
–
–
Final
Alabama@#24Tennessee
30%
70%
13
17
✓
TENN −7.7
–
–
Final
UAB@TulaneUpset
76%
24%
55
59
✗
UAB −11.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon State
35%
65%
19
38
✓
ORST −5.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-MonroevsFlorida AtlanticUpset
17%
83%
17
13
✗
FAU −14.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Marshall
3.3%
97%
14
48
✓
MRSH −29.1
–
–
Final
Oregon@StanfordUpset
21%
79%
16
13
✗
STAN −12.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana
31%
69%
24
27
✓
UL −7.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Akron
22%
78%
23
35
✓
AKR −11.7
–
–
Final
Washington@#1USC
0.6%
99%
0
38
✓
USC −40.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@New Mexico
21%
79%
9
19
✓
UNM −12.4
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
#11Georgia@#21Arkansas
43%
57%
20
14
✗
ARK −2.2
–
–
Final
#4California@Arizona
93%
7.3%
38
0
✓
CAL −23.6
–
–
Final
UCF@Miami (OH)
5.6%
94%
7
43
✓
M-OH −25.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@North Texas
24%
76%
26
36
✓
UNT −11.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@#6Utah
3.7%
96%
28
63
✓
UTAH −28.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Cincinnati
58%
42%
10
49
✗
MEM −3.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Southern Miss
6.1%
94%
10
51
✓
USM −24.4
–
–
Final
Houston@TCU
25%
75%
27
34
✓
TCU −10.2
–
–
Final
#9Texas@#14Texas Tech
41%
59%
51
21
✗
TTU −3.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Toledo
6.0%
94%
22
27
✓
TOL −24.6
–
–
Final
#2Miami (FL)@NC State
79%
21%
45
31
✓
MIA −13.1
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Nevada
35%
65%
48
54
✓
NEV −5.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Fresno State@#25Boise State
19%
82%
16
33
✓
BOIS −13.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
USF@#8Louisville
2.6%
97%
9
41
✓
LOU −30.8
–
–

Sun, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
9.9%
90%
28
46
✓
HAW −20.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Troy@#12LSU
9.4%
91%
20
24
✓
LSU −20.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 23 · 12:00 AM ET Savannah State at Florida A&M Savannah State −7.1 66%
Sat, Oct 23 · 3:00 PM ET Savannah State vs Florida A&M Savannah State −12.8 78%
Sat, Oct 23 · 2:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −29.7 97%