The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 49

Wilder than 49% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 14.1 expected

  • Biggest shockPittsburgh over Notre Dame19% chance · won 41-38
  • Runner-upNorth Carolina over Wake Forest23% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upToledo over Northern Illinois24% chance · won 31-17

Upsets

Tue, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Toledo@Northern IllinoisUpset
24%
76%
31
17
✗
NIU −10.6
–
–

Wed, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
TCU@#10Louisville
6.2%
94%
28
55
✓
LOU −24.2
–
–

Thu, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Utah State@Arkansas State
36%
64%
7
16
✓
ARST −5.1
–
–
Final
#7Florida State@NC State
67%
33%
17
10
✓
FSU −7.7
–
–

Fri, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@Memphis
37%
63%
26
30
✓
MEM −4.7
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Hawaii@Fresno State
17%
83%
14
70
✓
FRES −15.1
–
–

Sat, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 20 games

Final
#13Boise State@San Jose State
95%
4.8%
56
49
✓
BOIS −27.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@Colorado State
27%
73%
10
45
✓
CSU −9.2
–
–
Final
Penn State@Indiana
54%
46%
22
18
✓
PSU −2.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#14Michigan
12%
88%
20
42
✓
MICH −18.1
–
–
Final
#25Iowa@Minnesota
43%
57%
29
27
✗
MINN −2.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Wake ForestUpset
23%
77%
31
24
✗
WAKE −11.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@#24Bowling Green
21%
79%
35
56
✓
BGSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Temple
70%
30%
24
34
✗
SYR −8.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@BYU
38%
62%
21
14
✗
BYU −4.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@#20West VirginiaUpset
27%
73%
36
17
✗
WVU −9.3
–
–
Final
#4Texas@Kansas
80%
20%
27
23
✓
TEX −13.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#21Arkansas
12%
88%
3
35
✓
ARK −18.1
–
–
Final
UConn@Georgia Tech
28%
72%
10
30
✓
GT −8.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Kentucky
38%
62%
13
14
✓
UK −4.2
–
–
Final
Clemson@Duke
71%
29%
13
16
✗
CLEM −9.4
–
–
Final
Akron@Ohio
38%
62%
31
19
✗
OHIO −4.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Buffalo
49%
51%
6
36
✓
CMU −0.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@#16Oklahoma State
3.3%
97%
21
49
✓
OKST −29.2
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Colorado
45%
55%
31
38
✓
COLO −1.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Notre DameUpset
19%
81%
41
38
✗
ND −13.7
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
San Diego State@Air Force
29%
71%
37
31
✗
AF −8.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Middle Tennessee
17%
83%
24
37
✓
MTSU −14.7
–
–
Final
#9Georgia@#8Auburn
34%
66%
6
24
✓
AUB −5.9
–
–
Final
#19Wisconsin@Michigan StateUpset
55%
44%
14
49
✗
WIS −2.7
–
–
Final
#17Texas Tech@#23Texas A&M
38%
62%
25
32
✓
TA&M −4.5
–
–
Final
#5Miami (FL)@#11Virginia
45%
55%
31
21
✗
UVA −1.3
–
–
Final
#3California@Washington
95%
5.3%
42
12
✓
CAL −26.3
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana
73%
27%
13
10
✓
TROY −10.2
–
–
Final
UCLA@Oregon
38%
62%
34
26
✗
ORE −4.5
–
–
Final
Ohio State@#12Purdue
23%
77%
17
24
✓
PUR −11.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Western Michigan
86%
14%
42
21
✓
M-OH −17.4
–
–
Final
Houston@UAB
23%
77%
7
20
✓
UAB −11.3
–
–
Final
UCF@Ball State
33%
67%
17
21
✓
BALL −6.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico StatevsFlorida Atlantic
38%
62%
35
7
✗
FAU −4.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
14%
86%
17
69
✓
KENT −16.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Stanford
40%
60%
24
19
✗
STAN −3.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@SMU
64%
36%
20
38
✗
NEV −6.2
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
Idaho@North Texas
9.5%
90%
29
51
✓
UNT −20.5
–
–
Final
Alabama@#15LSU
23%
77%
10
26
✓
LSU −11.3
–
–
Final
Rice@UTEP
17%
83%
28
35
✓
UTEP −15.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Arizona@#1USC
0.5%
>99%
9
49
✓
USC −41.1
–
–

Sun, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 7 games

Final
Washington State@#22Arizona State
19%
80%
28
45
✓
ASU −13.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Florida
29%
72%
14
48
✓
FLA −8.6
–
–
Final
East Carolina@USF
17%
84%
17
41
✓
USF −15.1
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#2Oklahoma
4.3%
96%
3
30
✓
OU −27.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Louisiana Tech
32%
68%
21
38
✓
LT −7.0
–
–
Final
Army@Tulane
28%
72%
31
45
✓
TULN −8.9
–
–
Final
#6Utah@Wyoming
81%
19%
45
28
✓
UTAH −14.4
–
–