The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 34

Wilder than 34% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 16.0 expected

  • Biggest shockOhio over Kentucky21% chance · won 28-16
  • Runner-upFlorida A&M over Virginia Union21% chance · won 35-10
  • Runner-upIdaho over Eastern Michigan23% chance · won 45-41

Upsets

Wed, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Miami (OH)@Marshall
34%
66%
25
33
✓
MRSH −7.2
–
–

Thu, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Pittsburgh@UConn
38%
62%
17
29
✓
CONN −5.4
–
–
Final
Navy@Air Force
42%
58%
24
21
✗
AF −3.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
North Carolina@#5Florida State
2.5%
98%
16
38
✓
FSU −32.6
–
–
Final
#11Arkansas@#21Florida
43%
57%
30
45
✓
FLA −2.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
29%
71%
21
27
✓
NCSU −9.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
20%
80%
31
41
✓
SYR −13.8
–
–
Final
#18West Virginia@#23Virginia Tech
38%
62%
13
19
✓
VT −5.3
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Iowa
29%
71%
16
38
✓
IOWA −9.2
–
–
Final
#20Texas Tech@#3Oklahoma
18%
82%
13
28
✓
OU −15.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@#4Texas
1.9%
98%
14
44
✓
TEX −34.6
–
–
Final
TCU@Army
79%
21%
21
17
✓
TCU −13.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Central Michigan
50%
50%
21
24
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Ole Miss
11%
89%
21
28
✓
MISS −20.6
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#14Oklahoma State
7.5%
92%
7
36
✓
OKST −23.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Temple
64%
36%
70
16
✓
BGSU −5.7
–
–
Final
Houston@Memphis
20%
80%
14
41
✓
MEM −13.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@Wisconsin
10%
90%
7
24
✓
WIS −21.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@Eastern MichiganUpset
23%
77%
45
41
✗
EMU −12.5
–
–
Final
#8Purdue@Notre Dame
53%
47%
41
16
✓
PUR −1.0
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
East Carolina@#12Louisville
2.7%
97%
7
59
✓
LOU −31.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Wyoming
5.1%
95%
10
31
✓
WYO −27.2
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Georgia Tech
90%
10%
27
3
✓
MIA −21.0
–
–
Final
#7LSU@#16Georgia
45%
55%
16
45
✓
UGA −2.1
–
–
Final
#13Michigan@Indiana
78%
22%
35
14
✓
MICH −12.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@Missouri
32%
68%
9
17
✓
MIZ −7.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@Troy
14%
86%
21
49
✓
TROY −17.8
–
–
Final
#9California@Oregon State
56%
44%
49
7
✓
CAL −2.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Northern Illinois
15%
85%
19
49
✓
NIU −17.0
–
–
Final
Washington@Stanford
13%
87%
13
27
✓
STAN −18.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Alabama
39%
61%
20
3
✗
ALA −4.7
–
–
Final
UCF@Buffalo
55%
45%
20
48
✗
UCF −1.8
–
–

Prime time 14 games

Final
San Diego State@UCLA
31%
70%
10
33
✓
UCLA −8.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@USF
67%
33%
27
20
✓
USM −7.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@KentuckyUpset
21%
79%
28
16
✗
UK −13.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Vanderbilt
21%
79%
13
31
✓
VAN −13.2
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Texas A&M
37%
63%
30
42
✓
TA&M −5.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@North Texas
46%
54%
21
30
✓
UNT −1.7
–
–
Final
UAB@Cincinnati
40%
60%
30
27
✗
CIN −4.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Louisiana Tech
62%
38%
21
28
✗
FRES −4.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
24%
76%
14
52
✓
TOL −11.7
–
–
Final
Kansas@Nebraska
31%
69%
8
14
✓
NEB −8.2
–
–
Final
Auburn@#24TennesseeUpset
31%
69%
34
10
✗
TENN −8.4
–
–
Final
Rice@San Jose State
68%
32%
63
70
✗
RICE −7.8
–
–
Final
#17Ohio State@NorthwesternUpset
68%
32%
27
33
✗
OSU −7.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
42%
58%
0
45
✓
UTEP −3.3
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
BYU@Colorado State
34%
66%
31
21
✗
CSU −7.2
–
–
Final
Nevada@UNLV
50%
50%
13
48
✓
UNLV −0.2
–
–
Final
#22Arizona State@Oregon
61%
39%
28
13
✓
ASU −4.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#10Utah@New Mexico
54%
46%
28
7
✓
UTAH −1.7
–
–

Sun, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Tulsa@Hawaii
29%
71%
16
44
✓
HAW −9.3
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
SMU@#25Boise State
2.5%
98%
20
38
✓
BOIS −32.5
–
–
Final
Penn State@#19Minnesota
22%
78%
7
16
✓
MINN −13.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 2 · 12:00 AM ET Virginia Union at Florida A&M Virginia Union −6.9 66%
Sat, Oct 2 · 7:00 PM ET Virginia Union vs Florida A&M Virginia Union −13.1 79%
Sat, Oct 2 · 1:00 PM ET UMass at Boston College Boston College −22.3 91%
Sat, Oct 2 · 2:00 PM ET The Citadel at Duke Duke −33.7 98%
Sat, Oct 2 · 6:00 PM ET Louisiana at FIU FIU −1.5 53%