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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 39

Wilder than 39% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 12.5 expected

  • Biggest shockNorth Carolina over Miami (FL)5.6% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upBaylor over Texas A&M12% chance · won 35-34
  • Runner-upIndiana over Minnesota23% chance · won 30-21

Upsets

Thu, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#19Virginia Tech@Georgia Tech
59%
41%
34
20
✓
VT −4.0
–
–

Sat, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Florida Atlantic@Florida A&M
86%
14%
38
8
✓
FAU −17.6
–
–
Final
#10Purdue@NorthwesternUpset
75%
25%
10
13
✗
PUR −11.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
8.9%
91%
22
24
✓
WAKE −21.2
–
–
Final
Missouri@Nebraska
51%
49%
3
24
✗
MIZ −0.9
–
–
Final
#17West Virginia@Rutgers
80%
20%
35
30
✓
WVU −13.8
–
–
Final
#3Oklahoma@#14Oklahoma State
61%
39%
38
35
✓
OU −4.9
–
–
Final
NC State@Clemson
43%
57%
20
26
✓
CLEM −2.4
–
–
Final
#25Iowa@Illinois
79%
21%
23
13
✓
IOWA −13.4
–
–
Final
Penn State@Ohio State
29%
71%
10
21
✓
OSU −8.2
–
–
Final
Tennessee@South Carolina
37%
63%
43
29
✗
SC −5.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
29%
71%
21
24
✓
CMU −8.1
–
–
Final
UConn@Syracuse
34%
66%
30
42
✓
SYR −6.0
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa State
61%
39%
7
13
✗
KU −5.1
–
–
Final
#24Minnesota@IndianaUpset
77%
23%
21
30
✗
MINN −12.2
–
–
Final
UCF@Marshall
3.9%
96%
3
20
✓
MRSH −27.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Mississippi State
47%
53%
7
22
✓
MSST −0.7
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
43%
57%
26
17
✗
CSU −2.3
–
–
Final
Army@East Carolina
43%
57%
28
38
✓
ECU −2.3
–
–
Final
TCU@Cincinnati
32%
68%
10
21
✓
CIN −7.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@Middle Tennessee
21%
79%
0
21
✓
MTSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Air Force@Wyoming
33%
67%
26
43
✓
WYO −6.4
–
–
Final
Stanford@UCLA
34%
66%
0
21
✓
UCLA −6.1
–
–
Final
#5Texas@Colorado
75%
25%
31
7
✓
TEX −11.1
–
–
Final
Floridavs#11Georgia
36%
64%
24
31
✓
UGA −5.4
–
–
Final
#6Florida State@MarylandUpset
67%
33%
17
20
✗
FSU −7.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#13Michigan
15%
85%
37
45
✓
MICH −15.9
–
–
Final
Florida AtlanticvsFlorida A&M
92%
7.6%
38
8
✓
FAU −23.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
42%
58%
16
42
✓
KENT −2.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@Troy
2.7%
97%
7
47
✓
TROY −30.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@San Jose State
69%
31%
38
20
✓
UTEP −8.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@Houston
23%
77%
3
24
✓
HOU −11.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
81%
19%
38
31
✓
NIU −14.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#21Bowling Green
1.4%
99%
20
41
✓
BGSU −35.1
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Oregon State@Arizona
72%
28%
28
14
✓
ORST −9.9
–
–
Final
#2Miami (FL)@North CarolinaUpset
94%
5.6%
28
31
✗
MIA −25.8
–
–
Final
#1USC@Washington State
86%
14%
42
12
✓
USC −18.0
–
–
Final
#23Texas Tech@Kansas State
44%
56%
35
25
✗
KSU −1.8
–
–
Final
Washington@Oregon
16%
84%
6
31
✓
ORE −15.5
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulsa
40%
60%
22
39
✓
TLSA −3.5
–
–
Final
#18Texas A&M@BaylorUpset
88%
12%
34
35
✗
TA&M −18.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@North Texas
17%
83%
30
45
✓
UNT −14.9
–
–
Final
#9Auburn@Ole Miss
74%
26%
35
14
✓
AUB −10.7
–
–
Final
#7Utah@San Diego State
83%
17%
51
28
✓
UTAH −15.4
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#16Arizona State@#4California
15%
85%
0
27
✓
CAL −16.2
–
–
Final
SMU@Fresno State
4.6%
95%
0
42
✓
FRES −26.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Hawaii@#20Boise State
13%
87%
3
69
✓
BOIS −17.9
–
–

Sun, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Vanderbilt@#15LSU
3.9%
96%
7
24
✓
LSU −27.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 30 · 8:05 PM ET FIU at New Mexico State New Mexico State −11.9 78%
Sat, Oct 30 · 1:30 PM ET Delaware at Navy Navy −11.5 77%