The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 62

Wilder than 62% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 13.2 expected

  • Biggest shockWisconsin over Purdue17% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upArmy over USF17% chance · won 42-35
  • Runner-upTexas A&M over Oklahoma State21% chance · won 36-20

Upsets

Wed, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#22West Virginia@UConn
58%
42%
31
19
✓
WVU −3.7
–
–

Thu, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#11Louisville@#1Miami (FL)
14%
86%
38
41
✓
MIA −16.8
–
–

Sat, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@#20Florida
7.1%
93%
16
52
✓
FLA −23.1
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
14%
86%
7
24
✓
GT −16.9
–
–
Final
#18Minnesota@Michigan StateUpset
64%
36%
17
51
✗
MINN −6.4
–
–
Final
Temple@Rutgers
19%
81%
6
16
✓
RUTG −13.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@Pittsburgh
59%
41%
17
20
✗
BC −4.3
–
–
Final
#16Michigan@Illinois
83%
17%
30
19
✓
MICH −15.9
–
–
Final
#3Oklahoma@Kansas State
78%
22%
31
21
✓
OU −12.9
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Navy
47%
53%
27
9
✗
NAVY −0.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Toledo
23%
77%
13
31
✓
TOL −11.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#14Georgia
5.2%
95%
3
33
✓
UGA −25.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
27%
73%
35
31
✗
WMU −9.3
–
–
Final
Utah State@Clemson
9.2%
91%
6
35
✓
CLEM −20.8
–
–
Final
Florida A&M@#21Virginia Tech
0.1%
>99%
0
62
✓
VT −52.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Colorado
14%
86%
14
19
✓
COLO −17.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Buffalo
84%
16%
25
7
✓
M-OH −16.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@Memphis
8.0%
92%
24
49
✓
MEM −22.1
–
–
Final
Baylor@Nebraska
10%
90%
27
59
✓
NEB −19.9
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
New Mexico@UNLV
54%
46%
24
20
✓
UNM −2.2
–
–
Final
#19Arkansas@#12Auburn
30%
70%
20
38
✓
AUB −7.8
–
–
Final
#17Arizona State@#2USC
15%
85%
7
45
✓
USC −16.1
–
–
Final
NC State@Maryland
28%
72%
13
3
✗
MD −8.8
–
–
Final
Missouri@#6Texas
18%
82%
20
28
✓
TEX −14.4
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington
58%
42%
29
14
✓
ORST −3.9
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Alabama
34%
66%
3
27
✓
ALA −6.2
–
–
Final
Ohio State@Iowa
35%
65%
7
33
✓
IOWA −5.6
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon
18%
82%
14
28
✓
ORE −14.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Bowling Green
4.1%
96%
13
51
✓
BGSU −27.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@Kent State
72%
28%
27
17
✓
MRSH −9.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Northern Illinois
5.7%
94%
10
42
✓
NIU −25.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Idaho
73%
27%
25
38
✗
UL −10.1
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#5PurdueUpset
17%
83%
20
17
✗
PUR −15.0
–
–
Final
Akron@UCF
49%
51%
26
21
✗
AKR −0.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@SMU
58%
42%
41
10
✓
LT −3.6
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Colorado State@San Diego State
30%
70%
21
17
✗
SDSU −7.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@#4California
11%
89%
28
45
✓
CAL −19.3
–
–
Final
Army@USFUpset
17%
83%
42
35
✗
USF −14.9
–
–
Final
#24South Carolina@Kentucky
75%
25%
12
7
✓
SC −11.1
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#10Oklahoma StateUpset
21%
79%
36
20
✗
OKST −12.6
–
–
Final
#23Boise State@Tulsa
75%
25%
45
42
✓
BOIS −11.3
–
–
Final
Troy@Arkansas State
75%
25%
9
13
✗
TROY −11.1
–
–
Final
#9Virginia@#7Florida State
34%
66%
3
36
✓
FSU −6.1
–
–
Final
#25Tennessee@Ole Miss
57%
43%
21
17
✓
TENN −3.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Nevada
53%
47%
10
35
✗
RICE −1.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UTEP
61%
39%
20
51
✗
HAW −4.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Wyoming@BYU
43%
57%
13
24
✓
BYU −2.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#8Utah
3.6%
96%
16
46
✓
UTAH −28.4
–
–
Final
Stanford@Washington State
36%
64%
23
17
✗
WSU −5.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
TCU@UAB
29%
71%
25
41
✓
UAB −8.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 16 · 12:00 AM ET Florida Atlantic at Northern Colorado Florida Atlantic −11.3 75%
Sat, Oct 16 · 3:30 PM ET FIU at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −4.7 63%
Sat, Oct 16 · 4:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic at Northern Colorado Florida Atlantic −11.3 75%