The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2004

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 6

Wilder than 6% of weeks in the archive.

4 upsets against 11.1 expected

  • Biggest shockIowa State over Kansas State13% chance · won 37-23
  • Runner-upFlorida over Florida State22% chance · won 20-13
  • Runner-upKansas over Missouri29% chance · won 31-14

Upsets

Thu, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Maryland@#21Virginia Tech
24%
76%
6
55
✓
VT −11.0
–
–

Fri, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
North Texas@Arkansas State
54%
46%
31
7
✓
UNT −2.2
–
–

Sat, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 20 games

Final
Buffalo@UConn
6.5%
94%
0
29
✓
CONN −23.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@Northwestern
16%
84%
21
28
✓
NU −15.6
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Duke
51%
49%
40
17
✓
UNC −0.8
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Penn State
43%
57%
13
37
✓
PSU −2.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@Temple
83%
17%
34
17
✓
BC −15.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Clemson
35%
65%
7
29
✓
CLEM −5.5
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@Baylor
97%
3.4%
35
0
✓
OU −29.7
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas StateUpset
13%
87%
37
23
✗
KSU −17.6
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#4Miami (FL)
4.7%
95%
7
52
✓
MIA −26.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@#13Purdue
5.0%
95%
24
63
✓
PUR −26.0
–
–
Final
#25Tennessee@Vanderbilt
78%
22%
38
33
✓
TENN −12.7
–
–
Final
#11Virginia@Georgia Tech
62%
38%
30
10
✓
UVA −5.2
–
–
Final
#12Michigan@Ohio StateUpset
48%
52%
21
37
✓
OSU −0.4
–
–
Final
UAB@Army
68%
32%
20
14
✓
UAB −8.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Central Michigan
39%
61%
40
41
✓
CMU −4.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan
82%
18%
34
16
✓
NIU −15.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Navy
33%
67%
21
54
✓
NAVY −6.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Missouri
29%
71%
31
14
✗
MIZ −8.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@East Carolina
74%
26%
38
35
✓
MEM −10.9
–
–
Final
#17Arkansas@Mississippi State
84%
16%
24
21
✓
ARK −16.7
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@#15Boise State
6.5%
94%
14
55
✓
BOIS −23.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
21%
79%
9
16
✓
UNM −12.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Tulsa
17%
83%
24
34
✓
TLSA −14.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Air Force
44%
56%
17
47
✓
AF −1.9
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@TCU
45%
55%
17
42
✓
TCU −1.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Utah State
54%
46%
25
34
✗
NMSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Stanford@#3California
5.9%
94%
6
41
✓
CAL −24.7
–
–
Final
#7Auburn@Alabama
63%
37%
21
13
✓
AUB −5.9
–
–
Final
USF@Cincinnati
20%
80%
23
45
✓
CIN −12.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Marshall
3.5%
96%
21
31
✓
MRSH −28.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#22Iowa
29%
71%
7
30
✓
IOWA −8.5
–
–
Final
#9Louisville@Houston
85%
15%
65
27
✓
LOU −17.1
–
–
Final
SMU@UTEP
7.2%
93%
27
57
✓
UTEP −23.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Akron
64%
36%
37
27
✓
M-OH −6.3
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe
47%
53%
10
13
✓
ULM −0.7
–
–
Final
#19Florida@#8Florida StateUpset
22%
78%
20
13
✗
FSU −11.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#14LSU
7.6%
92%
24
27
✓
LSU −22.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@Fresno State
6.7%
93%
17
54
✓
FRES −23.5
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
UNLV@San Diego State
26%
74%
3
21
✓
SDSU −9.8
–
–
Final
Idaho@Hawaii
7.3%
93%
21
52
✓
HAW −22.9
–
–

Sun, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Oregon@Oregon State
26%
74%
21
50
✓
ORST −10.0
–
–
Final
BYU@#6Utah
6.1%
94%
21
52
✓
UTAH −24.4
–
–
Final
Washington@Washington State
11%
89%
25
28
✓
WSU −18.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Troy
15%
85%
17
37
✓
TROY −16.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 20 · 12:00 AM ET Florida A&M at Bethune-Cookman Bethune-Cookman −15.6 84%
Sat, Nov 20 · 12:00 AM ET Illinois State at Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic −42.5 >99%
Sat, Nov 20 · 4:00 PM ET Florida A&M vs Bethune-Cookman Bethune-Cookman −9.6 74%
Sat, Nov 20 · 4:00 PM ET Illinois State vs Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic −36.5 99%