The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 12 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 98

Wilder than 98% of weeks in the archive.

6 upsets against 3.3 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisiana Tech over Fresno State8.4% chance · won 40-28
  • Runner-upAkron over Northern Illinois18% chance · won 31-30
  • Runner-upFlorida State over Virginia Tech25% chance · won 27-22

Upsets

Thu, Dec 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Akron@Northern IllinoisUpset
18%
82%
31
30
✗
NIU −14.2
–
–

Fri, Dec 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@#17Fresno StateUpset
8.4%
92%
40
28
✗
FRES −21.7
–
–

Sat, Dec 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
Tulsa@UCF
59%
41%
44
27
✓
TLSA −3.9
–
–
Final
#2Texas@Colorado
87%
13%
70
3
✓
TEX −18.4
–
–
Final
Navy@Army
58%
42%
42
23
✓
NAVY −3.7
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
UCLA@#1USC
6.2%
94%
19
66
✓
USC −24.2
–
–
Final
#11Georgia@#10LSU
38%
62%
34
14
✗
LSU −4.2
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
#15West Virginia@USF
58%
42%
28
13
✓
WVU −3.8
–
–
Final
#8Louisville@UConn
80%
20%
30
20
✓
LOU −14.2
–
–
Final
#3Virginia Tech@Florida StateUpset
75%
25%
22
27
✗
VT −11.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
San Diego State@Hawaii
59%
41%
38
49
✗
SDSU −4.1
–
–

Sun, Dec 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@FIU
65%
35%
31
35
✗
MTSU −6.8
–
–