The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 64

Wilder than 64% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 14.9 expected

  • Biggest shockOregon State over California11% chance · won 23-20
  • Runner-upCincinnati over UConn18% chance · won 28-17
  • Runner-upSan Diego State over Utah22% chance · won 28-19

Upsets

Thu, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Clemson@NC State
42%
58%
31
10
✗
NCSU −3.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
28%
72%
36
39
✓
ARST −10.0
–
–

Sat, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Wake Forest@#25Boston College
11%
89%
30
35
✓
BC −20.1
–
–
Final
#24Wisconsin@#17Minnesota
36%
64%
38
34
✗
MINN −6.2
–
–
Final
#13Alabama@Ole Miss
82%
18%
13
10
✓
ALA −15.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
37%
63%
31
9
✗
SYR −5.7
–
–
Final
#15Michigan State@#12Ohio State
38%
62%
24
35
✓
OSU −5.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Air Force
20%
80%
7
42
✓
AF −13.9
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#20Texas Tech
22%
78%
20
59
✓
TTU −13.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Iowa
22%
78%
21
38
✓
IOWA −13.1
–
–
Final
#2Miami (FL)@Temple
>99%
0.5%
34
3
✓
MIA −42.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Central Michigan
36%
64%
10
37
✓
CMU −6.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Purdue
32%
68%
34
29
✗
PUR −7.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Buffalo
90%
10%
27
7
✓
BGSU −20.7
–
–
Final
Kent State@Navy
21%
79%
31
34
✓
NAVY −13.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Missouri
25%
75%
24
27
✓
MIZ −11.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Miami (OH)
21%
79%
23
51
✓
M-OH −13.2
–
–
Final
USF@Pittsburgh
53%
47%
17
31
✗
USF −1.1
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
Toledo@Ball State
85%
15%
34
14
✓
TOL −17.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@SMU
43%
57%
24
17
✗
SMU −3.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
32%
68%
27
24
✗
WYO −8.0
–
–
Final
#14Penn State@#18Michigan
43%
57%
25
27
✓
MICH −3.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#5CaliforniaUpset
11%
89%
23
20
✗
CAL −20.3
–
–
Final
#1USC@#11Notre Dame
73%
27%
34
31
✓
USC −10.2
–
–
Final
#19Florida@#10LSU
34%
66%
17
21
✓
LSU −6.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Duke
82%
18%
35
10
✓
GT −15.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Texas A&M
21%
79%
23
62
✓
TA&M −13.3
–
–
Final
#23Colorado@#3Texas
16%
84%
17
42
✓
TEX −16.8
–
–
Final
#8Louisville@West VirginiaUpset
62%
38%
44
46
✗
LOU −4.9
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana-Monroe
61%
39%
3
27
✗
TROY −4.7
–
–
Final
Washington@Oregon
11%
89%
21
45
✓
ORE −20.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Rice
72%
28%
41
21
✓
TLSA −9.7
–
–
Final
UConn@CincinnatiUpset
82%
18%
17
28
✗
CONN −15.2
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Florida Atlantic
48%
52%
35
14
✗
FAU −1.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Nevada
58%
42%
27
37
✗
LT −3.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Northern Illinois
17%
83%
8
24
✓
NIU −16.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Houston
27%
73%
35
20
✗
HOU −10.2
–
–
Final
UAB@Marshall
56%
44%
19
20
✗
UAB −2.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@FIU
58%
42%
13
10
✓
UNT −3.5
–
–
Final
#16UCLA@Washington State
69%
31%
44
41
✓
UCLA −7.9
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
#6Auburn@Arkansas
73%
27%
34
17
✓
AUB −10.2
–
–
Final
Stanford@Arizona
44%
56%
20
16
✗
ARIZ −2.6
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Baylor
51%
49%
23
14
✓
NEB −0.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UtahUpset
22%
78%
28
19
✗
UTAH −12.9
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@Kansas
51%
49%
19
3
✓
OU −0.4
–
–
Final
UCF@Southern Miss
25%
75%
31
52
✓
USM −11.3
–
–
Final
Army@TCU
6.0%
94%
17
38
✓
TCU −25.9
–
–
Final
#9Georgia@Vanderbilt
84%
16%
34
17
✓
UGA −16.1
–
–
Final
#7Florida State@VirginiaUpset
64%
36%
21
26
✗
FSU −5.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Boise State
3.4%
97%
21
38
✓
BOIS −30.4
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Colorado State@BYU
56%
44%
14
24
✗
CSU −2.3
–
–
Final
Utah State@#21Fresno State
2.9%
97%
21
53
✓
FRES −31.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UTEP@Tulane
65%
35%
45
21
✓
UTEP −6.2
–
–

Sun, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
New Mexico State@Hawaii
22%
78%
28
49
✓
HAW −12.9
–
–