The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 46 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 84

Wilder than 84% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 11.7 expected

  • Biggest shockBall State over Northern Illinois4.9% chance · won 31-17
  • Runner-upAkron over Bowling Green16% chance · won 24-14
  • Runner-upIdaho over New Mexico State19% chance · won 38-37

Upsets

Thu, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#24Boston College@#4Virginia Tech
16%
84%
10
30
✓
VT −15.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
Indiana@Michigan State
14%
86%
15
46
✓
MSU −16.8
–
–
Final
#5Ohio State@#20Minnesota
54%
46%
45
31
✓
OSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
70%
30%
44
6
✓
WAKE −9.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@NC State
50%
50%
17
21
✓
USM −0.3
–
–
Final
#25Oklahoma@Nebraska
58%
42%
31
24
✓
OU −3.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Syracuse
36%
64%
22
16
✗
SYR −5.3
–
–
Final
#17Wisconsin@Illinois
92%
8.4%
41
24
✓
WIS −22.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#3Miami (FL)
5.1%
95%
16
34
✓
MIA −25.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#6Auburn
5.3%
95%
3
27
✓
AUB −25.5
–
–
Final
#18Texas Tech@Baylor
73%
27%
28
0
✓
TTU −10.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Temple
91%
9.1%
41
14
✓
M-OH −21.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
69%
31%
17
21
✗
TOL −8.4
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas
52%
48%
3
13
✗
MIZ −1.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Buffalo
64%
36%
34
20
✓
OHIO −6.2
–
–
Final
UCF@East Carolina
46%
54%
30
20
✗
ECU −1.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
34%
66%
14
44
✓
WMU −5.9
–
–
Final
#22Colorado@Kansas State
70%
30%
23
20
✓
COLO −8.6
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Air Force@BYU
38%
62%
41
62
✓
BYU −4.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@#16Alabama
1.6%
98%
3
35
✓
ALA −34.2
–
–
Final
Nevada@Boise State
16%
84%
14
49
✓
BOIS −15.6
–
–
Final
#12Georgia@#19Florida
46%
54%
10
14
✓
FLA −1.0
–
–
Final
Washington State@#1USC
3.5%
96%
13
55
✓
USC −28.8
–
–
Final
Maryland@#10Florida State
18%
82%
27
35
✓
FSU −14.2
–
–
Final
Clemson@Georgia Tech
42%
58%
9
10
✓
GT −2.6
–
–
Final
Navy@Rutgers
38%
62%
21
31
✓
RUTG −4.4
–
–
Final
Purdue@#7Penn State
13%
87%
15
33
✓
PSU −17.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Texas A&MUpset
22%
78%
42
14
✗
TA&M −11.8
–
–
Final
Akron@Bowling GreenUpset
16%
84%
24
14
✗
BGSU −15.2
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon StateUpset
23%
77%
29
27
✗
ORST −11.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern IllinoisUpset
4.9%
95%
31
17
✗
NIU −26.1
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana
40%
60%
28
31
✓
UL −3.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@Rice
89%
11%
38
31
✓
UTEP −20.1
–
–
Final
Washington@Arizona State
9.2%
91%
20
44
✓
ASU −20.8
–
–
Final
#14UCLA@Stanford
73%
27%
30
27
✓
UCLA −10.3
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
#15Michigan@Northwestern
55%
45%
33
17
✓
MICH −2.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Kentucky
46%
54%
7
13
✓
UK −1.1
–
–
Final
#2Texas@Oklahoma State
98%
2.2%
47
28
✓
TEX −32.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Louisiana Tech
8.1%
92%
14
31
✓
LT −22.0
–
–
Final
Marshall@Tulane
50%
50%
27
26
✗
MRSH −0.4
–
–
Final
#21Fresno State@Hawaii
84%
16%
27
13
✓
FRES −16.0
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Tennessee
26%
74%
16
15
✗
TENN −9.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Colorado State@New Mexico
38%
62%
35
25
✗
UNM −4.3
–
–

Sun, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
TCU@San Diego State
69%
31%
23
20
✓
TCU −8.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@#11LSU
1.1%
99%
3
56
✓
LSU −36.3
–
–
Final
Idaho@New Mexico StateUpset
19%
81%
38
37
✗
NMSU −13.6
–
–