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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 25

Wilder than 25% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 12.2 expected

  • Biggest shockUC Davis over Stanford3.6% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upTulsa over North Texas26% chance · won 54-2
  • Runner-upTCU over Utah29% chance · won 23-20

Upsets

Thu, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#15Utah@TCUUpset
71%
29%
20
23
✗
UTAH −9.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
Oregon State@#11Louisville
24%
76%
27
63
✓
LOU −10.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Maryland
51%
49%
31
19
✓
WVU −0.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#24Michigan
9.9%
90%
0
55
✓
MICH −19.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@Syracuse
57%
43%
27
24
✓
UVA −3.1
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
45%
55%
23
31
✓
VAN −1.5
–
–
Final
SMU@Texas A&M
13%
87%
8
66
✓
TA&M −17.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#7Georgia
0.5%
>99%
7
44
✓
UGA −40.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@Temple
88%
12%
42
17
✓
TOL −18.6
–
–
Final
Troy@Missouri
23%
77%
21
52
✓
MIZ −11.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air Force
46%
54%
29
28
✗
AF −0.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@#18Auburn
2.9%
97%
3
63
✓
AUB −29.3
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Baylor@Army
59%
41%
20
10
✓
BAY −4.0
–
–
Final
#23Oklahoma@#13UCLA
34%
66%
24
41
✓
UCLA −5.8
–
–
Final
#20Michigan State@#19Notre Dame
40%
60%
44
41
✗
ND −3.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Nebraska
22%
78%
6
7
✓
NEB −11.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#21Ohio State
8.9%
91%
6
27
✓
OSU −20.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Penn State
9.6%
90%
3
40
✓
PSU −19.8
–
–
Final
#2Miami (FL)@Clemson
78%
22%
36
30
✓
MIA −12.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@#5Virginia Tech
4.0%
96%
0
45
✓
VT −27.0
–
–
Final
Idaho@Washington
12%
88%
6
34
✓
WASH −18.0
–
–
Final
Alabama@South Carolina
47%
53%
37
14
✗
SC −0.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
54%
46%
27
10
✓
M-OH −2.2
–
–
Final
Illinois@#3California
5.2%
95%
20
35
✓
CAL −24.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Middle Tennessee
45%
55%
17
7
✗
MTSU −1.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Wake Forest
29%
71%
34
44
✓
WAKE −7.9
–
–
Final
UConn@#25Georgia Tech
39%
61%
13
28
✓
GT −3.8
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Indiana
40%
60%
14
38
✓
IU −3.4
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
UCF@USF
29%
71%
14
31
✓
USF −8.0
–
–
Final
#12Wisconsin@North Carolina
69%
31%
14
5
✓
WIS −8.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@North Texas
26%
74%
54
2
✗
UNT −9.3
–
–
Final
Rice@#4Texas
2.2%
98%
10
51
✓
TEX −31.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Kansas
15%
85%
14
34
✓
KU −15.3
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Oregon
41%
59%
34
37
✓
ORE −3.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Oklahoma State
9.7%
90%
10
20
✓
OKST −19.8
–
–
Final
#9Florida State@#16Boston College
43%
57%
28
17
✗
BC −2.2
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@#8Minnesota
5.0%
95%
7
46
✓
MINN −25.2
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Northwestern@#22Arizona State
25%
75%
21
52
✓
ASU −10.0
–
–
Final
#14Purdue@Arizona
78%
22%
31
24
✓
PUR −12.4
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
56%
44%
14
22
✗
UNLV −2.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#1USC
7.5%
92%
17
70
✓
USC −22.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Houston@UTEP
23%
77%
41
44
✓
UTEP −11.0
–
–

Sun, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Tennessee@#6Florida
24%
76%
7
16
✓
FLA −10.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
9.3%
91%
21
38
✓
UNM −20.1
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Buffalo
79%
21%
17
3
✓
RUTG −12.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Tulane
29%
71%
21
14
✗
TULN −7.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Jacksonville State vs UAB UAB −17.9 88%
Sat, Sep 17 · 10:00 PM ET UC Davis at Stanford Stanford −27.7 96%
Sat, Sep 17 · 1:00 PM ET VMI at Duke Duke −20.6 91%
Sat, Sep 17 · 6:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at NC State NC State −38.5 99%
Sun, Sep 18 · TBD Chattanooga at Memphis Memphis −38.8 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Grambling at Washington State Washington State −28.7 97%
Sun, Sep 18 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana Louisiana −18.1 88%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina at Cincinnati Cincinnati −35.6 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 3:30 PM ET Northern Iowa at Iowa Iowa −40.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 4:05 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −37.8 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET McNeese at Southern Miss Southern Miss −24.5 94%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Sam Houston at #10 Texas Tech Texas Tech −36.9 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Western Michigan Western Michigan −11.0 77%