Week 12 slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 47 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Tue, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Ohio@Akron

37%
63%

3
27

✓

AKR −4.7

–

–

Wed, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Northern Illinois@Toledo

29%
71%

35
17

✗

TOL −8.3

–

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Bowling Green@Miami (OH)Upset

25%
75%

42
14

✗

M-OH −10.4

–

–

Sat, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 22 games

Final

Cincinnati@USF

10%
90%

16
31

✓

USF −20.0

–

–

Final

#22Boston College@Maryland

53%
46%

31
16

✓

BC −1.9

–

–

Final

#4Virginia Tech@Virginia

72%
28%

52
14

✓

VT −10.0

–

–

Final

Arkansas State@Army

31%
68%

10
38

✓

ARMY −7.2

–

–

Final

Northwestern@Illinois

83%
17%

38
21

✓

NU −15.6

–

–

Final

Central Michigan@Ball State

59%
41%

31
24

✓

CMU −4.1

–

–

Final

#15Minnesota@IowaUpset

50%
50%

28
52

✓

MINN −0.4

–

–

Final

#24Oklahoma@#13Texas Tech

31%
68%

21
23

✓

TTU −7.2

–

–

Final

Kentucky@#12Georgia

3.3%
97%

13
45

✓

UGA −29.2

–

–

Final

Vanderbilt@TennesseeUpset

18%
82%

28
24

✗

TENN −14.2

–

–

Final

Purdue@Indiana

70%
30%

41
14

✓

PUR −8.7

–

–

Final

#5Ohio State@#11Michigan

57%
43%

25
21

✓

OSU −3.2

–

–

Final

Middle Tennessee@NC State

19%
81%

3
24

✓

NCSU −13.6

–

–

Final

Duke@North Carolina

6.6%
93%

21
24

✓

UNC −23.7

–

–

Final

Eastern Michigan@Buffalo

66%
34%

38
14

✓

EMU −7.1

–

–

Final

Temple@Navy

4.9%
95%

17
38

✓

NAVY −26.1

–

–

Final

Mississippi State@Arkansas

12%
88%

10
44

✓

ARK −18.3

–

–

Final

Oklahoma State@Baylor

38%
62%

34
44

✓

BAY −4.2

–

–

Final

Tulsa@Tulane

78%
22%

38
14

✓

TLSA −12.8

–

–

Final

Missouri@Kansas State

51%
49%

28
36

✗

MIZ −0.8

–

–

Final

Syracuse@#9Notre Dame

2.2%
98%

10
34

✓

ND −31.9

–

–

Final

Air Force@New MexicoUpset

24%
76%

42
24

✗

UNM −11.0

–

–

Afternoon 13 games

Final

UCF@Rice

72%
28%

31
28

✓

UCF −10.0

–

–

Final

Utah@BYU

41%
59%

41
34

✗

BYU −3.0

–

–

Final

Idaho@Boise State

1.4%
99%

35
70

✓

BOIS −35.1

–

–

Final

Nevada@Utah State

68%
32%

30
24

✓

NEV −7.9

–

–

Final

Washington State@Washington

58%
42%

26
22

✓

WSU −3.8

–

–

Final

#16Alabama@#8Auburn

26%
74%

18
28

✓

AUB −9.8

–

–

Final

#7Penn State@Michigan State

68%
32%

31
22

✓

PSU −7.8

–

–

Final

Colorado State@UNLV

78%
22%

31
27

✓

CSU −13.0

–

–

Final

East Carolina@Marshall

31%
69%

34
29

✗

MRSH −7.4

–

–

Final

New Mexico State@San Jose State

40%
60%

10
27

✓

SJSU −3.7

–

–

Final

SMU@HoustonUpset

17%
84%

29
24

✗

HOU −15.1

–

–

Final

UAB@UTEP

26%
74%

35
23

✗

UTEP −9.8

–

–

Final

Oregon State@#17Oregon

17%
83%

14
56

✓

ORE −14.6

–

–

Prime time 4 games

Final

#10LSU@Ole Miss

87%
13%

40
7

✓

LSU −18.4

–

–

Final

Georgia Tech@#3Miami (FL)Upset

6.8%
93%

14
10

✗

MIA −23.5

–

–

Final

Wyoming@San Diego State

34%
66%

21
34

✓

SDSU −5.9

–

–

Final

Memphis@Southern MissUpset

24%
76%

24
22

✗

USM −10.8

–

–

Late night 1 game

Final

#14Fresno State@#1USC

8.2%
92%

42
50

✓

USC −21.9

–

–

Sun, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final

#18California@Stanford

65%
35%

27
3

✓

CAL −6.6

–

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@North Texas

42%
58%

24
19

✗

UNT −2.6

–

–

Final

Clemson@South Carolina

54%
46%

13
9

✓

CLEM −2.0

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Nov 19 · 6:00 PM ET	Western Kentucky at FIU	Western Kentucky −13.1	79%