The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 85

Wilder than 85% of weeks in the archive.

21 upsets against 15.1 expected

  • Biggest shockOklahoma State over Texas Tech10% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over Middle Tennessee16% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upKentucky over Vanderbilt21% chance · won 48-43

Upsets

Tue, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@Marshall
70%
30%
27
24
✓
USM −8.7
–
–

Wed, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
West Virginia@Cincinnati
78%
22%
38
0
✓
WVU −13.0
–
–

Thu, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Boise State@#18Fresno State
27%
73%
7
27
✓
FRES −9.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Rutgers@#9Louisville
8.7%
91%
5
56
✓
LOU −21.3
–
–

Sat, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 20 games

Final
Indiana@#13Michigan
5.5%
94%
14
41
✓
MICH −25.2
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#19Minnesota
32%
68%
18
41
✓
MINN −6.9
–
–
Final
Maryland@North Carolina
46%
54%
33
30
✗
UNC −1.0
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#24Oklahoma
22%
78%
30
36
✓
OU −11.8
–
–
Final
UConn@Pittsburgh
41%
59%
0
24
✓
PITT −3.3
–
–
Final
#14Florida State@ClemsonUpset
52%
48%
14
35
✗
FSU −1.5
–
–
Final
Illinois@Purdue
8.3%
92%
3
37
✓
PUR −21.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#5Ohio State
13%
87%
7
48
✓
OSU −17.8
–
–
Final
#21Florida@South CarolinaUpset
60%
40%
22
30
✗
FLA −4.5
–
–
Final
Navy@#8Notre Dame
8.1%
92%
21
42
✓
ND −21.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@Florida Atlantic
36%
64%
23
26
✓
FAU −5.4
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Kent StateUpset
22%
78%
10
6
✗
KENT −11.9
–
–
Final
USF@Syracuse
70%
30%
27
0
✓
USF −9.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@Missouri
25%
75%
16
31
✓
MIZ −10.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Ole Miss
58%
42%
28
17
✓
ARK −3.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Nebraska
33%
67%
25
27
✓
NEB −6.4
–
–
Final
#10Texas Tech@Oklahoma StateUpset
90%
10%
17
24
✗
TTU −20.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@VanderbiltUpset
21%
79%
48
43
✗
VAN −12.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tennessee
18%
82%
16
20
✓
TENN −14.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
45%
55%
24
31
✓
WMU −1.5
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
San Diego State@Colorado State
29%
71%
30
10
✗
CSU −8.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Tulsa
18%
82%
13
45
✓
TLSA −14.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@Rice
52%
48%
34
42
✗
TULN −1.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Middle TennesseeUpset
16%
84%
34
31
✗
MTSU −15.6
–
–
Final
#1USC@#17California
80%
20%
35
10
✓
USC −13.8
–
–
Final
#3Miami (FL)@Wake Forest
91%
8.7%
47
17
✓
MIA −22.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@#2Texas
3.2%
97%
14
66
✓
TEX −29.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia
39%
61%
17
27
✓
UVA −3.9
–
–
Final
Iowa@#23WisconsinUpset
33%
67%
20
10
✗
WIS −6.6
–
–
Final
#11LSU@#15Alabama
46%
54%
16
13
✗
ALA −1.0
–
–
Final
UCF@UAB
29%
71%
27
21
✗
UAB −8.4
–
–
Final
Nevada@New Mexico State
66%
34%
48
24
✓
NEV −7.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Idaho
89%
11%
41
38
✓
LT −20.0
–
–
Final
Washington@ArizonaUpset
22%
78%
38
14
✗
ARIZ −11.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
33%
67%
26
25
✗
EMU −6.7
–
–
Final
BYU@Wyoming
48%
52%
35
21
✗
WYO −0.5
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon State
37%
63%
20
17
✗
ORST −4.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Utah
29%
71%
31
27
✗
UTAH −8.3
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
NC State@#25Boston College
24%
76%
10
30
✓
BC −11.0
–
–
Final
#7Auburn@#12Georgia
49%
51%
31
30
✗
AUB −0.1
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#20Oregon@Washington State
64%
36%
34
31
✓
ORE −6.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Hawaii
19%
81%
23
50
✓
HAW −13.4
–
–

Sun, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@Houston
53%
47%
24
27
✗
USM −1.6
–
–

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#22Arizona State@UCLAUpset
44%
56%
35
45
✓
UCLA −1.8
–
–
Final
#16Colorado@Iowa StateUpset
60%
40%
16
30
✗
COLO −4.5
–
–
Final
FIU@Louisiana
23%
77%
7
28
✓
UL −11.4
–
–
Final
Troy@Arkansas State
42%
58%
3
9
✓
ARST −2.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@TCU
2.9%
97%
3
51
✓
TCU −30.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 12 · 12:00 PM ET UMass at Army UMass −1.5 53%
Sat, Nov 12 · 9:05 PM ET Texas Southern at UTEP UTEP −28.8 97%