The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 30

Wilder than 30% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 15.5 expected

  • Biggest shockMiddle Tennessee over Vanderbilt19% chance · won 17-15
  • Runner-upCentral Michigan over Akron21% chance · won 31-17
  • Runner-upIdaho over Utah State22% chance · won 27-13

Upsets

Tue, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Toledo@Fresno State
46%
54%
14
44
✓
FRES −1.9
–
–

Wed, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
25%
75%
16
44
✓
M-OH −11.1
–
–

Thu, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Air Force@Colorado State
45%
55%
23
41
✓
CSU −2.3
–
–

Sat, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Florida Atlantic@#24Louisville
5.4%
95%
10
61
✓
LOU −26.8
–
–
Final
#22Virginia@MarylandUpset
61%
39%
33
45
✗
UVA −4.4
–
–
Final
#17Michigan@#7Michigan State
33%
67%
34
31
✗
MSU −7.3
–
–
Final
#4Texas@Missouri
71%
29%
51
20
✓
TEX −9.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@#16Wisconsin
11%
89%
24
41
✓
WIS −20.8
–
–
Final
#3Virginia Tech@West Virginia
74%
26%
34
17
✓
VT −10.6
–
–
Final
UConn@Army
82%
18%
47
13
✓
CONN −15.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@Iowa
23%
77%
7
35
✓
IOWA −12.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas A&M
14%
86%
13
16
✓
TA&M −18.0
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Tennessee
19%
82%
10
27
✓
TENN −15.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@#23Boston College
2.4%
98%
0
38
✓
BC −32.8
–
–
Final
Navy@Duke
62%
38%
28
21
✓
NAVY −5.1
–
–
Final
#25Utah@North CarolinaUpset
57%
43%
17
31
✗
UTAH −2.7
–
–
Final
Kent State@Eastern Michigan
42%
58%
20
27
✓
EMU −3.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@Oklahoma State
47%
53%
34
0
✗
OKST −1.2
–
–
Final
#20LSU@Mississippi State
79%
21%
37
7
✓
LSU −13.4
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
UNLV@Wyoming
13%
87%
17
42
✓
WYO −18.4
–
–
Final
#6Minnesota@Penn StateUpset
60%
40%
14
44
✗
MINN −3.9
–
–
Final
#1USC@#12Arizona State
77%
23%
38
28
✓
USC −12.3
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#9Florida State
15%
85%
14
38
✓
FSU −17.4
–
–
Final
Clemson@Wake Forest
69%
31%
27
31
✗
CLEM −8.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Nebraska
30%
70%
20
27
✓
NEB −8.6
–
–
Final
#8Florida@#21Alabama
53%
47%
3
31
✗
FLA −1.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Bowling Green
9.5%
90%
7
69
✓
BGSU −21.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon State
53%
47%
33
44
✗
WSU −1.3
–
–
Final
SMU@Marshall
22%
78%
13
16
✓
MRSH −13.0
–
–
Final
Oregon@Stanford
54%
46%
44
20
✓
ORE −1.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@IdahoUpset
78%
22%
13
27
✗
USU −12.9
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@East Carolina
66%
34%
33
7
✓
USM −6.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@AkronUpset
21%
79%
31
17
✗
AKR −13.5
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
South Carolina@#14Auburn
18%
82%
7
48
✓
AUB −15.6
–
–
Final
Rice@UAB
15%
85%
26
45
✓
UAB −17.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Jose State
61%
39%
30
23
✓
NEV −4.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@#5California
5.7%
94%
0
28
✓
CAL −26.3
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Oklahoma
31%
69%
21
43
✓
OU −8.1
–
–
Final
Houston@Tulsa
34%
66%
30
23
✗
TLSA −6.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@VanderbiltUpset
19%
81%
17
15
✗
VAN −14.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Louisiana Tech
26%
74%
14
34
✓
LT −10.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
67%
33%
27
31
✗
ARST −7.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@TCU
47%
53%
28
49
✓
TCU −1.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@#19Texas Tech
30%
70%
17
30
✓
TTU −8.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Western Michigan
26%
74%
21
31
✓
WMU −10.6
–
–
Final
#15Notre Dame@#18Purdue
42%
58%
49
28
✗
PUR −3.3
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
BYU@San Diego State
46%
54%
10
31
✓
SDSU −1.9
–
–
Final
Washington@#10UCLA
5.7%
94%
17
21
✓
UCLA −26.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@Rutgers
44%
56%
29
37
✓
RUTG −2.5
–
–

Sun, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Boise State@Hawaii
67%
33%
44
41
✓
BOIS −7.3
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
UTEP@Memphis
55%
45%
20
27
✗
UTEP −2.0
–
–
Final
UCF@Louisiana
54%
46%
24
21
✓
UCF −1.5
–
–
Final
USF@#2Miami (FL)
8.1%
92%
7
27
✓
MIA −23.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 1 · 6:00 PM ET Florida A&M at FIU FIU −17.6 85%
Sat, Oct 1 · 3:30 PM ET SE Louisiana vs Tulane Tulane −17.0 85%