The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 33

Wilder than 33% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockWestern Michigan over Bowling Green6.5% chance · won 45-14
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Michigan State17% chance · won 49-14
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Middle Tennessee20% chance · won 13-10

Upsets

Thu, Oct 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#4Virginia Tech@Maryland
77%
23%
28
9
✓
VT −12.3
–
–
Final
FIU@Troy
20%
80%
13
18
✓
TROY −12.9
–
–

Fri, Oct 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Tulane@UCF
28%
72%
24
34
✓
UCF −8.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Northwestern@#16Michigan StateUpset
17%
83%
49
14
✗
MSU −15.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@North Carolina
55%
45%
5
7
✗
UVA −2.3
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Pittsburgh
24%
76%
17
34
✓
PITT −10.7
–
–
Final
#11Louisville@Cincinnati
86%
14%
46
22
✓
LOU −18.1
–
–
Final
#6Ohio State@Indiana
82%
18%
41
10
✓
OSU −15.1
–
–
Final
#18Michigan@Iowa
52%
48%
23
20
✓
MICH −1.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#7Georgia
12%
88%
20
23
✓
UGA −18.7
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Missouri
45%
55%
24
41
✓
MIZ −1.5
–
–
Final
Temple@Clemson
1.7%
98%
7
37
✓
CLEM −33.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Kent State
67%
33%
34
3
✓
NIU −7.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Iowa State
30%
70%
10
37
✓
ISU −8.0
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Ole Miss
19%
81%
7
13
✓
MISS −13.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Ohio
28%
72%
21
38
✓
OHIO −8.7
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Kansas State
57%
43%
30
28
✓
TA&M −3.5
–
–
Final
BYU@#8Notre Dame
8.5%
92%
23
49
✓
ND −21.5
–
–
Final
Houston@Mississippi State
59%
41%
28
16
✓
HOU −3.9
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
40%
60%
31
39
✓
CSU −3.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@UConn
26%
74%
26
24
✗
CONN −9.7
–
–
Final
TCU@Air Force
51%
49%
48
10
✓
TCU −0.9
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulsa
12%
88%
13
20
✓
TLSA −18.7
–
–
Final
#13Florida State@Duke
94%
6.4%
55
24
✓
FSU −24.7
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
49%
51%
19
27
✓
NCSU −0.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Memphis
22%
78%
24
27
✓
MEM −12.1
–
–
Final
#12Texas Tech@#2Texas
17%
83%
17
52
✓
TEX −14.7
–
–
Final
#1USC@Washington
97%
2.8%
51
24
✓
USC −31.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@#21Wisconsin
19%
81%
20
31
✓
WIS −13.5
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#15Alabama
26%
74%
3
6
✓
ALA −9.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@South Carolina
24%
76%
28
35
✓
SC −10.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Bowling GreenUpset
6.5%
94%
45
14
✗
BGSU −23.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana Tech
16%
84%
14
40
✓
LT −15.4
–
–
Final
#22Arizona State@StanfordUpset
73%
27%
35
45
✗
ASU −10.4
–
–
Final
#19Fresno State@Idaho
99%
1.4%
40
10
✓
FRES −35.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Middle TennesseeUpset
20%
80%
13
10
✗
MTSU −12.9
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Jose State
72%
28%
45
38
✓
HAW −10.0
–
–
Final
Navy@Rice
70%
30%
41
9
✓
NAVY −8.8
–
–
Final
Army@AkronUpset
22%
78%
20
0
✗
AKR −11.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Eastern Michigan
75%
25%
24
23
✓
M-OH −11.4
–
–
Final
Boise State@Utah State
84%
16%
45
21
✓
BOIS −16.0
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
#24Oregon@Arizona
79%
21%
28
21
✓
ORE −13.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#17UCLA
19%
81%
28
51
✓
UCLA −13.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Colorado
23%
77%
13
44
✓
COLO −11.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@#25Oklahoma
13%
87%
30
37
✓
OU −17.3
–
–
Final
#14Penn State@Illinois
90%
10%
63
10
✓
PSU −20.8
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Arkansas State
29%
71%
0
3
✓
ARST −8.3
–
–
Final
Utah@UNLV
77%
23%
42
32
✓
UTAH −12.3
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Toledo
2.7%
97%
15
38
✓
TOL −30.6
–
–
Final
#5Auburn@#9LSU
45%
55%
17
20
✓
LSU −1.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@UTEP
18%
82%
3
31
✓
UTEP −14.3
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
New Mexico@San Diego State
40%
60%
47
24
✗
SDSU −3.6
–
–
Final
Washington State@#10California
14%
86%
38
42
✓
CAL −16.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@UAB
49%
51%
37
28
✗
PK
–
–