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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 27

Wilder than 27% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 12.4 expected

  • Biggest shockIowa State over Iowa15% chance · won 23-3
  • Runner-upCentral Michigan over Miami (OH)18% chance · won 38-37
  • Runner-upVanderbilt over Arkansas20% chance · won 28-24

Upsets

Thu, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Oklahoma State@Florida Atlantic
55%
45%
23
3
✓
OKST −2.6
–
–

Fri, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
Washington State@Nevada
53%
47%
55
21
✓
WSU −1.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Kansas State@Marshall
57%
42%
21
19
✓
KSU −3.4
–
–
Final
Clemson@Maryland
44%
56%
28
24
✗
MD −2.0
–
–
Final
#21Notre Dame@#12Michigan
36%
64%
17
10
✗
MICH −4.9
–
–
Final
#11Virginia Tech@Duke
82%
18%
45
0
✓
VT −14.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Penn State
34%
66%
24
42
✓
PSU −5.8
–
–
Final
Temple@#22Wisconsin
7.2%
93%
0
65
✓
WIS −22.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#17Auburn
11%
89%
0
28
✓
AUB −18.5
–
–
Final
Army@#20Boston College
12%
88%
7
44
✓
BC −17.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#14Oklahoma
7.8%
92%
15
31
✓
OU −21.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Purdue
19%
81%
24
49
✓
PUR −13.1
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#16Minnesota
20%
80%
24
56
✓
MINN −12.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Miami (OH)Upset
18%
82%
38
37
✗
M-OH −13.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Illinois
19%
81%
19
40
✓
ILL −13.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Air Force
31%
68%
29
41
✓
AF −6.9
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Wyoming
10.0%
90%
0
38
✓
WYO −19.4
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#23Georgia Tech
24%
76%
21
27
✓
GT −10.2
–
–
Final
#7Iowa@Iowa StateUpset
85%
15%
3
23
✗
IOWA −16.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#24Michigan State
16%
84%
14
42
✓
MSU −14.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Syracuse
12%
88%
0
31
✓
SYR −18.1
–
–
Final
#5California@Washington
85%
15%
56
17
✓
CAL −16.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Northwestern
34%
66%
37
38
✓
NU −5.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#4Georgia
14%
86%
15
17
✓
UGA −16.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#15Florida
17%
83%
3
41
✓
FLA −14.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Eastern Michigan
37%
63%
10
31
✓
EMU −4.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@Navy
47%
53%
41
38
✗
NAVY −0.6
–
–
Final
Boise State@Oregon State
39%
61%
27
30
✓
ORST −3.6
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Vanderbilt@#25ArkansasUpset
20%
80%
28
24
✗
ARK −12.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Missouri
33%
67%
45
35
✗
MIZ −6.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Nebraska
38%
62%
3
31
✓
NEB −4.1
–
–
Final
North Texas@Middle Tennessee
52%
48%
14
7
✓
UNT −1.4
–
–
Final
FIU@Texas Tech
5.3%
95%
3
56
✓
TTU −24.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
17%
83%
23
56
✓
TOL −14.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Alabama
28%
72%
21
30
✓
ALA −8.3
–
–
Final
LSU@#9Arizona StateUpset
30%
70%
35
31
✗
ASU −7.5
–
–
Final
TCU@SMUUpset
78%
22%
10
21
✗
TCU −12.2
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Rice@#18UCLA
14%
86%
21
63
✓
UCLA −16.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Colorado
20%
80%
0
39
✓
COLO −12.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@UNLV
5.9%
94%
31
34
✓
UNLV −23.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@Ohio
61%
39%
10
16
✗
PITT −5.0
–
–

Sun, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
#3Texas@#13Ohio State
58%
42%
25
22
✓
TEX −3.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@#10Utah
8.3%
92%
7
31
✓
UTAH −21.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ball State
83%
17%
40
31
✓
BGSU −15.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Troy
42%
58%
27
7
✗
TROY −2.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 10 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona Arizona −33.7 98%
Sat, Sep 10 · 1:00 PM ET Liberty at UConn UConn −23.5 94%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:45 PM ET The Citadel at #6 Florida State Florida State −43.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Florida A&M at USF USF −24.2 94%
Sat, Sep 10 · 5:00 PM ET Nicholls at Indiana Indiana −26.5 96%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET Idaho State at Kentucky Kentucky −27.3 96%
Sat, Sep 10 · 3:30 PM ET Villanova vs Rutgers Rutgers −15.6 85%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Samford vs Baylor Baylor −22.7 93%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Sam Houston vs Houston Houston −7.4 70%
Sat, Sep 10 · 3:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at BYU BYU −28.4 97%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET Wofford at West Virginia West Virginia −29.7 97%
Sat, Sep 10 · 10:00 PM ET Weber State at Fresno State Fresno State −40.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET UT Martin vs Arkansas State Arkansas State −23.9 94%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Appalachian State at Kansas Kansas −12.1 79%
Sat, Sep 10 · 4:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Kent State Kent State −25.2 95%
Sat, Sep 10 · 3:30 PM ET Montana at Oregon Oregon −27.3 96%