The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 28 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 76

Wilder than 76% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 10.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNebraska over Michigan25% chance · won 32-28
  • Runner-upWisconsin over Auburn29% chance · won 24-10
  • Runner-upLSU over Miami (FL)31% chance · won 40-3

Upsets

Tue, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Southern MissvsArkansas State
86%
14%
31
19
✓
USM −18.1
–
–

Wed, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
ToledovsUTEP
54%
46%
45
13
✓
TOL −2.0
–
–

Thu, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
BYUvs#16California
24%
76%
28
35
✓
CAL −10.7
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Colorado StatevsNavy
44%
56%
30
51
✓
NAVY −1.9
–
–

Fri, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
KansasvsHouston
59%
41%
42
13
✓
KU −4.0
–
–

Sat, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
NevadavsUCF
47%
53%
49
48
✗
UCF −0.7
–
–

Mon, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
MemphisvsAkron
59%
41%
38
31
✓
MEM −3.9
–
–

Tue, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
ClemsonvsColorado
59%
41%
19
10
✓
CLEM −4.2
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Arizona StatevsRutgers
72%
28%
45
40
✓
ASU −10.0
–
–

Wed, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Boise Statevs#18Boston College
36%
64%
21
27
✓
BC −5.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#11MichiganvsNebraskaUpset
75%
25%
28
32
✗
MICH −11.0
–
–

Thu, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Georgia TechvsUtah
58%
42%
10
38
✗
GT −3.6
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#15Oregonvs#19Oklahoma
52%
48%
14
17
✗
ORE −1.3
–
–

Fri, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Virginiavs#21MinnesotaUpset
36%
64%
34
31
✗
MINN −5.2
–
–
Final
NorthwesternvsUCLA
38%
62%
38
50
✓
UCLA −4.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
South CarolinavsMissouri
56%
44%
31
38
✗
SC −2.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#4Miami (FL)vs#13LSU
69%
31%
3
40
✗
MIA −8.5
–
–

Sat, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
USFvsNC State
54%
46%
0
14
✗
USF −1.9
–
–
Final
#24Fresno StatevsTulsaUpset
65%
35%
24
31
✗
FRES −6.8
–
–
Final
#23TCUvsIowa State
60%
40%
27
24
✓
TCU −4.7
–
–

Mon, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
#22Iowavs#17Florida
47%
53%
24
31
✓
FLA −0.8
–
–
Final
#12Texas Techvs#20Alabama
55%
45%
10
13
✗
TTU −2.4
–
–
Final
#8Louisvillevs#3Virginia Tech
37%
63%
24
35
✓
VT −4.7
–
–
Final
Wisconsinvs#7AuburnUpset
29%
71%
24
10
✗
AUB −8.4
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#9Notre Damevs#5Ohio State
39%
61%
20
34
✓
OSU −3.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#14West Virginiavs#10Georgia
41%
59%
38
35
✗
UGA −3.0
–
–

Tue, Jan 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#6Penn Statevs#25Florida State
70%
30%
26
23
✓
PSU −8.6
–
–

Wed, Jan 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1USCvs#2Texas
50%
50%
38
41
✓
USC −0.5
–
–