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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 36 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 54

Wilder than 54% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 9.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNevada over Fresno State13% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upNebraska over Colorado19% chance · won 30-3
  • Runner-upFIU over Florida Atlantic28% chance · won 52-6

Upsets

Mon, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
75%
25%
38
7
✓
M-OH −11.2
–
–

Wed, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
20%
80%
7
42
✓
NIU −12.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
45%
55%
44
41
✗
BGSU −1.6
–
–

Thu, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Kent State@Akron
22%
78%
3
35
✓
AKR −11.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@#20West Virginia
22%
78%
13
45
✓
WVU −11.8
–
–

Fri, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
#2Texas@Texas A&M
93%
7.0%
40
29
✓
TEX −24.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#10LSU
15%
85%
17
19
✓
LSU −16.1
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Arizona@Arizona State
14%
86%
20
23
✓
ASU −16.6
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#24ColoradoUpset
19%
81%
30
3
✗
COLO −13.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Wisconsin@Hawaii
79%
21%
41
24
✓
WIS −13.2
–
–

Sat, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
UAB@East Carolina
66%
34%
23
31
✗
UAB −7.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@NC State
44%
56%
14
20
✓
NCSU −1.8
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Kentucky
78%
22%
27
8
✓
TENN −12.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
53%
47%
21
24
✗
ISU −1.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Rutgers
25%
75%
9
44
✓
RUTG −10.2
–
–
Final
Marshall@Memphis
27%
73%
3
26
✓
MEM −9.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@North Texas
48%
52%
31
24
✗
UNT −0.5
–
–
Final
Boise State@Louisiana Tech
67%
33%
30
13
✓
BOIS −7.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Mississippi State
54%
46%
14
35
✗
MISS −2.2
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
UTEP@SMU
70%
30%
27
40
✗
UTEP −9.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@Southern Miss
8.3%
92%
7
26
✓
USM −21.7
–
–
Final
USF@UConn
57%
42%
10
15
✗
USF −3.5
–
–
Final
#22Florida State@FloridaUpset
44%
56%
7
34
✓
FLA −2.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#7Louisville
2.2%
98%
17
41
✓
LOU −32.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#25Oklahoma
9.1%
91%
14
42
✓
OU −20.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@#3Miami (FL)
8.4%
92%
17
25
✓
MIA −21.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe
49%
51%
54
21
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico State
50%
50%
24
21
✗
USU −0.3
–
–
Final
Rice@Houston
12%
88%
18
35
✓
HOU −18.3
–
–
Final
Idaho@San Jose State
28%
72%
18
26
✓
SJSU −8.9
–
–
Final
FIU@Florida Atlantic
28%
72%
52
6
✗
FAU −8.9
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
#13Fresno State@NevadaUpset
87%
13%
35
38
✗
FRES −18.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#4Virginia Tech
4.7%
95%
3
30
✓
VT −26.4
–
–
Final
#9Notre Dame@Stanford
82%
18%
38
31
✓
ND −15.2
–
–
Final
#12Georgia@Georgia Tech
56%
44%
14
7
✓
UGA −2.8
–
–

Sun, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@Troy
53%
47%
17
7
✓
MTSU −1.7
–
–