The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 19

Wilder than 19% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 15.0 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern State over Louisiana-Monroe13% chance · won 27-23
  • Runner-upTCU over Oklahoma16% chance · won 17-10
  • Runner-upGeorgia Tech over Auburn26% chance · won 23-14

Upsets

Thu, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 5 games

Final
Vanderbilt@Wake Forest
31%
69%
24
20
✗
WAKE −7.1
–
–
Final
Oregon@Houston
53%
46%
38
24
✓
ORE −1.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Cincinnati
18%
82%
26
28
✓
CIN −13.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@UConn
19%
81%
0
38
✓
CONN −13.4
–
–
Final
UCF@South Carolina
19%
81%
15
24
✓
SC −13.2
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Temple@#22Arizona State
18%
82%
16
63
✓
ASU −14.0
–
–
Final
Idaho@Washington State
4.5%
96%
26
38
✓
WSU −26.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Tulsa
59%
41%
41
10
✓
MINN −4.1
–
–

Fri, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Indiana@Central Michigan
55%
45%
20
13
✓
IU −2.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
Ohio@Northwestern
29%
71%
14
38
✓
NU −8.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Michigan State
32%
68%
14
49
✓
MSU −6.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#20Ohio State
31%
69%
14
34
✓
OSU −7.0
–
–
Final
TCU@#3OklahomaUpset
16%
84%
17
10
✗
OU −14.9
–
–
Final
#24Bowling Green@WisconsinUpset
44%
56%
42
56
✓
WIS −1.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Illinois
42%
58%
30
33
✓
ILL −2.6
–
–
Final
Missouri@Arkansas State
65%
35%
44
17
✓
MIZ −6.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@#18Iowa
13%
87%
0
56
✓
IOWA −16.9
–
–
Final
UAB@#25Tennessee
28%
72%
10
17
✓
TENN −8.6
–
–
Final
Duke@East Carolina
49%
51%
21
24
✓
DUKE −0.3
–
–
Final
FIU@Kansas State
12%
88%
21
35
✓
KSU −18.1
–
–

Afternoon 9 games

Final
Colorado State@Colorado
35%
65%
28
31
✓
COLO −5.5
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#17Michigan
29%
71%
17
33
✓
MICH −7.9
–
–
Final
USF@Penn State
26%
74%
13
23
✓
PSU −9.7
–
–
Final
Boston College@BYU
49%
51%
20
3
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Washington@Air Force
34%
66%
17
20
✓
AF −6.0
–
–
Final
#11Boise State@#13Georgia
42%
58%
13
48
✓
UGA −2.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#19Florida
27%
73%
14
32
✓
FLA −8.9
–
–
Final
Maryland@Navy
47%
53%
23
20
✗
NAVY −0.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#12Virginia
11%
89%
19
31
✓
UVA −18.8
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
#2USC@Hawaii
76%
24%
63
17
✓
USC −11.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#7Texas
11%
89%
3
60
✓
TEX −18.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Alabama
24%
76%
7
26
✓
ALA −10.3
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Kansas
27%
73%
19
30
✓
KU −9.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#8AuburnUpset
26%
74%
23
14
✗
AUB −9.3
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
UCLA@San Diego State
54%
46%
44
21
✓
UCLA −2.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
52%
48%
34
17
✓
UTEP −1.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arizona@#6Utah
14%
86%
24
27
✓
UTAH −16.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
West Virginia@Syracuse
50%
50%
15
7
✓
WVU −0.6
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#5Louisville@Kentucky
76%
24%
31
24
✓
LOU −11.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#10Virginia Tech@NC State
54%
46%
20
16
✓
VT −1.9
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Notre Dame@Pittsburgh
45%
55%
42
21
✗
PITT −1.5
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Clemson
44%
56%
24
25
✓
CLEM −1.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@SMU
47%
53%
28
23
✗
SMU −0.5
–
–

Mon, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
UNLV@New Mexico
27%
73%
22
24
✓
UNM −9.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Ole Miss@Memphis
38%
62%
10
6
✗
MEM −4.1
–
–

Tue, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#1Miami (FL)@#9Florida State
64%
36%
7
10
✗
MIA −6.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET William & Mary at Marshall Marshall −33.3 98%
Fri, Sep 2 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −16.9 87%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Western Illinois at Toledo Toledo −29.0 97%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Missouri State at Arkansas Arkansas −20.8 91%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at San Jose State San Jose State −17.8 88%
Sat, Sep 3 · 5:00 PM ET Sacramento State at #4 California California −28.8 97%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Illinois State at Iowa State Iowa State −37.2 99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Maine at Nebraska Nebraska −24.7 95%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Montana State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −37.4 99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM ET Portland State at #23 Oregon State Oregon State −32.7 98%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Mississippi State Mississippi State −34.9 99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Cal Poly at Troy Troy −23.6 94%