The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2005

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 47 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 23

Wilder than 23% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 12.6 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisiana-Monroe over Florida Atlantic16% chance · won 28-21
  • Runner-upUSF over Louisville16% chance · won 45-14
  • Runner-upTennessee over LSU29% chance · won 30-27

Upsets

Thu, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Air Force@#24Utah
19%
81%
35
38
✓
UTAH −14.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Florida AtlanticUpset
16%
84%
28
21
✗
FAU −16.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@Boise State
42%
58%
20
48
✓
BOIS −3.6
–
–

Fri, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
#4California@New Mexico State
96%
4.5%
41
13
✓
CAL −28.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Penn State@Northwestern
62%
38%
34
29
✓
PSU −4.9
–
–
Final
#18Purdue@#6Minnesota
30%
70%
35
42
✓
MINN −8.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@NC State
32%
68%
31
24
✗
NCSU −7.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@#19Ohio State
25%
75%
6
31
✓
OSU −11.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Clemson
47%
53%
16
13
✗
CLEM −1.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@West Virginia
7.7%
92%
15
20
✓
WVU −23.7
–
–
Final
#21Michigan State@Illinois
72%
28%
61
14
✓
MSU −9.4
–
–
Final
Colorado@#2Miami (FL)
12%
88%
3
23
✓
MIA −19.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#25Alabama
24%
76%
13
24
✓
ALA −12.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Temple
49%
51%
19
16
✗
TEM −0.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
43%
57%
23
20
✗
CMU −3.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
41%
59%
32
35
✓
OHIO −3.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@SMU
48%
52%
31
10
✗
SMU −0.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@Kansas State
15%
85%
7
54
✓
KSU −17.1
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
TCU@BYU
48%
52%
51
50
✗
BYU −1.0
–
–
Final
#9Florida@Kentucky
90%
10%
49
28
✓
FLA −21.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@Wake Forest
54%
46%
22
12
✓
MD −1.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
8.7%
91%
7
38
✓
UVA −22.6
–
–
Final
#22Georgia Tech@#5Virginia Tech
25%
75%
7
51
✓
VT −11.1
–
–
Final
#23Notre Dame@Washington
78%
22%
36
17
✓
ND −12.7
–
–
Final
FIU@Arkansas State
27%
73%
24
66
✓
ARST −10.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@Colorado State
24%
76%
21
42
✓
CSU −11.7
–
–
Final
#16Michigan@#15Wisconsin
40%
60%
20
23
✓
WIS −4.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Akron
53%
47%
42
48
✗
NIU −1.0
–
–
Final
Marshall@UCF
63%
37%
13
23
✗
MRSH −5.2
–
–
Final
#7Louisville@USFUpset
84%
16%
14
45
✗
LOU −16.2
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
Troy@South Carolina
23%
77%
20
45
✓
SC −12.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Ole Miss
47%
53%
24
14
✗
MISS −1.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulsa
41%
59%
31
37
✓
TLSA −4.0
–
–
Final
#1USC@Oregon
87%
13%
45
13
✓
USC −18.5
–
–
Final
#13Georgia@Mississippi State
85%
15%
23
10
✓
UGA −17.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@Utah State
47%
53%
24
31
✓
USU −1.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UTEP
47%
53%
13
21
✓
UTEP −1.3
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Hawaii@Idaho
81%
19%
24
0
✓
HAW −14.2
–
–
Final
#14Arizona State@Oregon State
68%
32%
42
24
✓
ASU −7.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Iowa State@Army
71%
29%
28
21
✓
ISU −9.3
–
–

Sun, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
San Jose State@San Diego State
19%
81%
21
52
✓
SDSU −14.6
–
–

Mon, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Tennessee@#17LSUUpset
29%
71%
30
27
✗
LSU −9.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Sep 22 · 8:30 PM ET Texas State at #20 Texas A&M Texas A&M −28.7 96%
Sat, Sep 24 · 2:30 PM ET Western Kentucky at #12 Auburn Auburn −24.2 93%
Sat, Sep 24 · 2:00 PM ET Youngstown State at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −22.2 91%
Sat, Sep 24 · 7:00 PM ET Richmond at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −29.9 96%
Sat, Sep 24 · 7:00 PM ET Indiana State at #10 Texas Tech Texas Tech −56.4 >99%