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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 17 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 41

Wilder than 41% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 5.5 expected

  • Biggest shockArizona over USC31% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upWashington over California33% chance · won 42-10
  • Runner-upAlabama over Florida40% chance · won 32-13

Upsets

Thu, Dec 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#23Oregon State@#7Oregon
24%
76%
33
37
✓
ORE −11.0
–
–

Fri, Dec 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
OhiovsCentral Michigan
30%
70%
10
20
✓
CMU −7.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arkansas State@Western Kentucky
77%
23%
24
20
✓
ARST −12.2
–
–

Sat, Dec 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 5 games

Final
Houston@East Carolina
53%
47%
32
38
✗
HOU −1.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Rutgers
48%
52%
24
21
✗
RUTG −0.5
–
–
Final
#13Cincinnati@#20Pittsburgh
46%
54%
45
44
✗
PITT −0.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Illinois
55%
44%
53
52
✓
FRES −2.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Louisiana Tech
13%
87%
20
55
✓
LT −17.5
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
New Mexico State@#6Boise State
0.2%
>99%
7
42
✓
BOIS −45.0
–
–
Final
Arizona@#16USCUpset
31%
69%
21
17
✗
USC −7.5
–
–
Final
#2Floridavs#4Alabama
60%
40%
13
32
✗
FLA −4.3
–
–
Final
California@Washington
68%
32%
10
42
✗
CAL −7.7
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
USF@UConn
31%
69%
27
29
✓
CONN −7.3
–
–
Final
#1Texasvs#12Nebraska
80%
20%
13
12
✓
TEX −13.7
–
–
Final
#14Georgia Techvs#15Clemson
49%
51%
39
34
✗
PK
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Wisconsin@Hawaii
74%
26%
51
10
✓
WIS −10.8
–
–

Sun, Dec 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Florida Atlantic@FIU
48%
52%
28
21
✗
FIU −0.3
–
–