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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 17

Wilder than 17% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia over Georgia Tech20% chance · won 30-24
  • Runner-upHawaii over Navy21% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upNC State over North Carolina26% chance · won 28-27

Upsets

Wed, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
31%
69%
22
17
✗
WMU −7.6
–
–

Thu, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1Texas@Texas A&M
91%
8.8%
49
39
✓
TEX −22.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
Rutgers@Louisville
67%
33%
34
14
✓
RUTG −7.6
–
–
Final
Temple@Ohio
52%
48%
17
35
✗
TEM −1.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@#13Cincinnati
7.5%
92%
36
49
✓
CIN −22.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Central Michigan
27%
73%
31
45
✓
CMU −9.4
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
39%
61%
17
16
✗
CSU −3.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
20%
80%
24
38
✓
BGSU −13.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Akron
20%
80%
21
28
✓
AKR −12.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Kent State
53%
47%
9
6
✓
BUF −1.8
–
–
Final
#4Alabama@Auburn
74%
26%
26
21
✓
ALA −10.7
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
#15Nebraska@Colorado
83%
17%
28
20
✓
NEB −15.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulsa
12%
88%
30
33
✓
TLSA −18.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Nevada@#6Boise State
16%
84%
33
44
✓
BOIS −15.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
Syracuse@UConn
15%
85%
31
56
✓
CONN −16.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
57%
43%
45
34
✓
WAKE −3.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@NC State
74%
26%
27
28
✗
UNC −10.8
–
–
Final
#12Clemson@South CarolinaUpset
72%
28%
17
34
✗
CLEM −9.6
–
–
Final
#23Ole Miss@Mississippi StateUpset
65%
35%
27
41
✗
MISS −6.8
–
–
Final
#19Oklahoma State@#5Oklahoma
26%
74%
0
27
✓
OU −10.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#3TCU
0.4%
>99%
10
51
✓
TCU −42.8
–
–
Final
UCF@UAB
56%
44%
34
27
✓
UCF −3.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@East Carolina
36%
64%
20
25
✓
ECU −5.3
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
North Texas@Arkansas State
21%
79%
26
30
✓
ARST −12.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@SMU
12%
88%
21
26
✓
SMU −18.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@UTEP
53%
47%
21
52
✗
MRSH −1.6
–
–
Final
Arizona@Arizona State
61%
39%
20
17
✓
ARIZ −5.0
–
–
Final
Florida State@#2Florida
9.6%
90%
10
37
✓
FLA −20.5
–
–
Final
#21Miami (FL)@USF
59%
41%
31
10
✓
MIA −4.2
–
–
Final
Boston College@Maryland
73%
27%
19
17
✓
BC −10.1
–
–
Final
#8Virginia Tech@Virginia
84%
16%
42
13
✓
VT −16.3
–
–
Final
MissourivsKansas
61%
39%
41
39
✓
MIZ −5.1
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Florida Atlantic
14%
86%
23
29
✓
FAU −16.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Louisiana-Monroe
63%
37%
38
19
✓
MTSU −5.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@Idaho
57%
43%
52
49
✓
USU −3.4
–
–
Final
Utah@#25BYU
41%
59%
23
26
✓
BYU −3.3
–
–
Final
#10Texas TechvsBaylor
89%
11%
20
13
✓
TTU −19.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@Washington
11%
89%
0
30
✓
WASH −19.6
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
New Mexico State@San Jose State
28%
72%
10
13
✓
SJSU −8.8
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#22Stanford
31%
69%
38
45
✓
STAN −7.5
–
–
Final
Georgia@#14Georgia TechUpset
20%
80%
30
24
✗
GT −12.8
–
–
Final
Rice@Houston
4.4%
96%
14
73
✓
HOU −27.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UNLV
31%
69%
24
28
✓
UNLV −7.4
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
UCLA@#17USC
21%
79%
7
28
✓
USC −12.3
–
–
Final
Navy@HawaiiUpset
79%
21%
17
24
✗
NAVY −13.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#16Pittsburgh@West VirginiaUpset
55%
45%
16
19
✗
PITT −2.4
–
–

Sun, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Tennessee@Kentucky
54%
46%
30
24
✓
TENN −2.2
–
–
Final
#18Arkansas@#20LSU
42%
58%
30
33
✓
LSU −2.8
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana
74%
26%
48
31
✓
TROY −10.7
–
–