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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 60 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 0

Wilder than 0% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 16.6 expected

  • Biggest shockStanford over USC25% chance · won 55-21
  • Runner-upUCF over Houston31% chance · won 37-32
  • Runner-upEast Carolina over Tulsa34% chance · won 44-17

Upsets

Wed, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
12%
88%
28
56
✓
CMU −18.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Ohio@Buffalo
49%
51%
27
24
✗
PK
–
–

Thu, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)
73%
27%
35
14
✓
BGSU −10.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
15%
85%
20
26
✓
NIU −16.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
USF@Rutgers
48%
52%
0
31
✓
RUTG −0.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
West Virginia@#10Cincinnati
22%
78%
21
24
✓
CIN −11.8
–
–
Final
Temple@Akron
62%
38%
56
17
✓
TEM −5.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final
Syracuse@Louisville
35%
65%
9
10
✓
LOU −5.7
–
–
Final
#21Tennessee@Ole MissUpset
48%
52%
17
42
✓
MISS −0.4
–
–
Final
#18Georgia Tech@Duke
76%
24%
49
10
✓
GT −11.8
–
–
Final
#12Clemson@NC State
83%
17%
43
23
✓
CLEM −15.4
–
–
Final
Florida State@Wake Forest
48%
52%
41
28
✗
WAKE −0.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@#14Penn State
5.4%
95%
20
31
✓
PSU −25.4
–
–
Final
#1Texas@Baylor
94%
6.4%
47
14
✓
TEX −24.7
–
–
Final
Michigan@Wisconsin
26%
74%
24
45
✓
WIS −9.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
46%
54%
21
16
✗
ILL −1.2
–
–
Final
Houston@UCF
69%
31%
32
37
✗
HOU −8.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Purdue
54%
46%
40
37
✓
MSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
62%
38%
24
13
✓
UK −5.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas State
54%
46%
38
12
✓
MIZ −2.1
–
–
Final
#11Virginia Tech@Maryland
88%
12%
36
9
✓
VT −19.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Memphis
58%
42%
31
21
✓
UAB −3.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Eastern Michigan
72%
28%
35
14
✓
WMU −9.8
–
–
Final
Colorado@Iowa State
32%
68%
10
17
✓
ISU −7.0
–
–
Final
#22BYU@New Mexico
94%
6.2%
24
19
✓
BYU −25.1
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
San Jose State@Utah State
23%
77%
9
24
✓
USU −11.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@SMU
38%
62%
31
35
✓
SMU −4.3
–
–
Final
Stanford@#9USCUpset
25%
75%
55
21
✗
USC −10.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@#6Boise State
1.1%
99%
25
63
✓
BOIS −36.3
–
–
Final
#20Miami (FL)@North CarolinaUpset
57%
43%
24
33
✗
MIA −3.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@#8Ohio State
22%
78%
24
27
✓
OSU −11.9
–
–
Final
Washington@Oregon State
19%
80%
21
48
✓
ORST −13.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Rice
38%
62%
20
28
✓
RICE −4.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Virginia
69%
31%
14
10
✓
BC −8.3
–
–
Final
#15Nebraska@Kansas
64%
36%
31
17
✓
NEB −6.0
–
–
Final
#2Florida@South Carolina
88%
12%
24
14
✓
FLA −19.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Florida Atlantic
58%
42%
18
35
✗
ARST −3.8
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Louisiana-Monroe
10%
90%
18
21
✓
ULM −19.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Nevada
45%
55%
14
52
✓
NEV −1.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Middle Tennessee
24%
76%
17
34
✓
MTSU −11.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Marshall
54%
46%
27
20
✓
USM −2.1
–
–
Final
UCLA@Washington State
83%
17%
43
7
✓
UCLA −15.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@Air Force
15%
85%
17
45
✓
AF −15.9
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
Troy@#24Arkansas
27%
73%
20
56
✓
ARK −9.2
–
–
Final
#23Utah@#3TCU
16%
84%
28
55
✓
TCU −15.3
–
–
Final
#13Texas Tech@#19Oklahoma State
48%
52%
17
24
✓
OKST −0.1
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#17Pittsburgh
28%
72%
22
27
✓
PITT −9.0
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Wyoming@San Diego State
42%
58%
30
27
✗
SDSU −2.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Hawaii
18%
82%
6
24
✓
HAW −14.4
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#7Oregon
12%
88%
21
44
✓
ORE −18.6
–
–

Sun, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
East Carolina@Tulsa
34%
66%
44
17
✗
TLSA −6.1
–
–

Time TBD 6 games

Final
#25Arizona@CaliforniaUpset
45%
55%
16
24
✓
CAL −1.6
–
–
Final
Auburn@Georgia
46%
54%
24
31
✓
UGA −1.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#16LSU
9.1%
91%
16
24
✓
LSU −21.0
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#5Oklahoma
10%
90%
10
65
✓
OU −19.7
–
–
Final
#4Alabama@Mississippi State
82%
18%
31
3
✓
ALA −14.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@FIU
34%
66%
28
35
✓
FIU −6.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET South Dakota State at Minnesota Minnesota −30.8 97%
Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET VMI at Army Army −15.5 84%
Sat, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET Delaware at Navy Navy −14.6 83%