The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 8

Wilder than 8% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.0 expected

  • Biggest shockSyracuse over Rutgers22% chance · won 31-13
  • Runner-upCalifornia over Stanford33% chance · won 34-28
  • Runner-upKentucky over Georgia35% chance · won 34-27

Upsets

Wed, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Buffalo@Miami (OH)
67%
33%
42
17
✓
BUF −7.6
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
79%
21%
35
3
✓
CMU −13.3
–
–

Thu, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Colorado@#16Oklahoma State
9.1%
91%
28
31
✓
OKST −20.9
–
–

Fri, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Akron@Bowling Green
17%
83%
20
36
✓
BGSU −14.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#7Boise State@Utah State
93%
7.0%
52
21
✓
BOIS −24.0
–
–

Sat, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Maryland@Florida State
13%
87%
26
29
✓
FSU −17.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@USF
19%
82%
22
34
✓
USF −13.9
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Boston College
39%
61%
31
13
✗
BC −3.9
–
–
Final
#8Ohio State@Michigan
84%
16%
21
10
✓
OSU −16.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Iowa
20%
80%
0
12
✓
IOWA −13.1
–
–
Final
Duke@#21Miami (FL)
12%
88%
16
34
✓
MIA −18.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#22Arkansas
21%
79%
21
42
✓
ARK −12.5
–
–
Final
FIU@#3Florida
0.7%
99%
3
62
✓
FLA −39.3
–
–
Final
#5Oklahoma@#14Texas Tech
60%
40%
13
41
✗
OU −4.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Temple
27%
73%
13
47
✓
TEM −9.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@Houston
7.2%
93%
14
55
✓
HOU −22.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Missouri
20%
80%
24
34
✓
MIZ −12.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ohio
52%
48%
31
38
✗
NIU −1.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@UCF
9.6%
90%
0
49
✓
UCF −20.4
–
–
Final
#2TCU@Wyoming
97%
3.0%
45
10
✓
TCU −30.6
–
–
Final
UConn@Notre Dame
40%
60%
33
30
✗
ND −3.5
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
Wisconsin@Northwestern
63%
37%
31
33
✗
WIS −5.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@Indiana
59%
41%
38
21
✓
PUR −4.1
–
–
Final
#15Penn State@Michigan State
63%
37%
42
14
✓
PSU −5.7
–
–
Final
#19LSU@#23Ole Miss
45%
55%
23
25
✓
MISS −1.3
–
–
Final
UAB@East Carolina
20%
80%
21
37
✓
ECU −12.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@SyracuseUpset
78%
22%
13
31
✗
RUTG −12.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@#10Clemson
9.0%
91%
21
34
✓
CLEM −21.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@Rice
64%
36%
29
30
✗
UTEP −6.3
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas A&M
36%
64%
3
38
✓
TA&M −5.0
–
–
Final
Air Force@#25BYU
37%
63%
21
38
✓
BYU −4.9
–
–
Final
NC State@#9Virginia Tech
6.8%
93%
10
38
✓
VT −23.5
–
–
Final
Arizona State@UCLA
40%
60%
13
23
✓
UCLA −3.7
–
–
Final
Army@North Texas
48%
52%
17
13
✗
UNT −0.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Utah
7.3%
93%
7
38
✓
UTAH −22.9
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Troy
21%
79%
21
47
✓
TROY −12.6
–
–
Final
SMU@Marshall
37%
63%
31
34
✓
MRSH −4.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Middle Tennessee
32%
68%
14
38
✓
MTSU −6.8
–
–
Final
#24Oregon State@Washington State
95%
5.4%
42
10
✓
ORST −26.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Fresno State
29%
71%
28
30
✓
FRES −8.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@New Mexico
60%
40%
27
29
✗
CSU −4.7
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
California@#20StanfordUpset
33%
67%
34
28
✗
STAN −6.7
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Southern Miss
42%
58%
34
44
✓
USM −2.6
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Georgia
35%
65%
34
27
✗
UGA −5.5
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#11Nebraska
12%
88%
3
17
✓
NEB −18.2
–
–
Final
#6Oregon@Arizona
66%
34%
44
41
✓
ORE −7.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Jose State
61%
39%
17
10
✓
HAW −4.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@#1Texas
4.5%
96%
20
51
✓
TEX −26.9
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Nevada@New Mexico State
94%
6.1%
63
20
✓
NEV −25.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
21%
79%
21
47
✓
TOL −12.4
–
–

Sun, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana
48%
52%
17
21
✓
UL −0.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Tennessee
13%
87%
16
31
✓
TENN −17.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 21 · 12:21 PM ET Chattanooga at #4 Alabama Alabama −57.6 >99%