The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 8

Wilder than 8% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 15.9 expected

  • Biggest shockDuke over NC State29% chance · won 49-28
  • Runner-upNew Mexico State over Utah State30% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upIdaho over San Jose State31% chance · won 29-25

Upsets

Wed, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@Troy
40%
60%
7
31
✓
TROY −4.3
–
–

Thu, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#6Nebraska@#13Missouri
55%
45%
27
12
✓
NEB −1.9
–
–

Fri, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@Nevada
39%
61%
14
37
✓
NEV −4.6
–
–

Sat, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
#16Auburn@ArkansasUpset
61%
39%
23
44
✗
AUB −4.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Northwestern
9.3%
91%
6
16
✓
NU −22.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@Minnesota
45%
55%
20
35
✓
MINN −2.3
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Syracuse
73%
27%
34
13
✓
WVU −10.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@#12Virginia Tech
27%
73%
14
48
✓
VT −10.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Army
66%
34%
13
16
✗
VAN −6.7
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Illinois
64%
36%
24
14
✓
MSU −5.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
12%
88%
8
56
✓
CMU −19.2
–
–
Final
Georgia@Tennessee
44%
56%
19
45
✓
TENN −2.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Texas A&M
59%
41%
36
31
✓
OKST −3.8
–
–
Final
Houston@Mississippi State
54%
46%
31
24
✓
HOU −1.6
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#17Kansas
17%
83%
36
41
✓
KU −15.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@South Carolina
33%
67%
26
28
✓
SC −7.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Temple
31%
69%
19
24
✓
TEM −8.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
37%
63%
13
37
✓
WYO −5.7
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
#9Oregon@UCLA
70%
30%
24
10
✓
ORE −8.8
–
–
Final
#3Alabama@#21Ole Miss
66%
34%
22
3
✓
ALA −6.7
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#7Ohio State
19%
81%
13
31
✓
OSU −14.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@#5Oklahoma
12%
88%
7
33
✓
OU −20.0
–
–
Final
UConn@#22Pittsburgh
31%
69%
21
24
✓
PITT −8.2
–
–
Final
Navy@Rice
78%
22%
63
14
✓
NAVY −12.5
–
–
Final
Indiana@Virginia
36%
64%
7
47
✓
UVA −6.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
62%
38%
36
35
✓
BGSU −4.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@Tulane
60%
40%
31
10
✓
MRSH −4.2
–
–
Final
Duke@NC State
29%
71%
49
28
✗
NCSU −9.5
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Washington State
82%
18%
27
14
✓
ASU −15.1
–
–
Final
#23Utah@Colorado State
76%
24%
24
17
✓
UTAH −11.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Akron
56%
44%
19
7
✓
OHIO −2.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@Wake Forest
20%
80%
32
42
✓
WAKE −14.2
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
FIU@Western Kentucky
64%
36%
37
20
✓
FIU −5.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon State
52%
48%
28
38
✗
STAN −0.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana
31%
69%
34
38
✓
UL −8.3
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#14Texas Tech
14%
86%
14
66
✓
TTU −17.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
36%
64%
58
26
✗
TOL −6.1
–
–
Final
Colorado@#2Texas
3.1%
97%
14
38
✓
TEX −31.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisville
60%
40%
23
25
✗
USM −4.1
–
–
Final
#10TCU@Air Force
70%
30%
20
17
✓
TCU −8.4
–
–
Final
Michigan@#19Iowa
27%
73%
28
30
✓
IOWA −10.2
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Arizona@Washington
63%
37%
33
36
✗
ARIZ −5.3
–
–
Final
#25BYU@UNLV
77%
23%
59
21
✓
BYU −12.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
60%
40%
42
17
✓
FRES −3.9
–
–

Sun, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final
Idaho@San Jose State
31%
69%
29
25
✗
SJSU −8.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Florida State
43%
57%
49
44
✗
FSU −3.1
–
–
Final
#1Florida@#18LSU
72%
28%
13
3
✓
FLA −9.5
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico State
70%
30%
17
20
✗
USU −8.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@Memphis
67%
33%
20
35
✗
UTEP −7.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@SMU
64%
36%
21
28
✗
ECU −5.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET Georgia Southern at North Carolina North Carolina −14.4 80%
Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET Texas Southern vs Rutgers Rutgers −54.9 >99%
Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at #11 Penn State Penn State −50.3 >99%
Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Buffalo Buffalo −24.6 93%
Sat, Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ET Florida A&M at Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −34.8 98%