Week 9 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Wed, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

East Carolina@Memphis

70%
30%

38
19

✓

ECU −8.6

–

–

Thu, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

North Carolina@#9Virginia TechUpset

16%
84%

20
17

✗

VT −15.5

–

–

Sat, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final

Rutgers@UConn

36%
64%

28
24

✗

CONN −5.2

–

–

Final

NC State@Florida State

17%
83%

42
45

✓

FSU −14.8

–

–

Final

#12Cincinnati@Syracuse

90%
10%

28
7

✓

CIN −20.6

–

–

Final

New Mexico State@#10Ohio State

0.5%
>99%

0
45

✓

OSU −41.1

–

–

Final

Purdue@Wisconsin

37%
63%

0
37

✓

WIS −4.7

–

–

Final

Ohio@Ball State

62%
38%

20
17

✓

OHIO −5.3

–

–

Final

Louisiana@FIU

41%
59%

17
20

✓

FIU −3.3

–

–

Final

Indiana@#20Iowa

7.8%
92%

24
42

✓

IOWA −22.3

–

–

Final

Akron@Northern Illinois

19%
81%

10
27

✓

NIU −13.8

–

–

Final

#21Ole Miss@AuburnUpset

53%
47%

20
33

✗

MISS −1.7

–

–

Final

#13Nebraska@Baylor

78%
22%

20
10

✓

NEB −12.6

–

–

Final

Southern Miss@Houston

27%
73%

43
50

✓

HOU −9.3

–

–

Final

Missouri@Colorado

66%
34%

36
17

✓

MIZ −7.1

–

–

Final

SMU@TulsaUpset

11%
89%

27
13

✗

TLSA −18.9

–

–

Final

Western Michigan@Kent State

44%
56%

14
26

✓

KENT −1.9

–

–

Afternoon 22 games

Final

San Jose State@#6Boise State

1.1%
99%

7
45

✓

BOIS −36.3

–

–

Final

UAB@UTEP

28%
72%

38
33

✗

UTEP −9.0

–

–

Final

#24California@Arizona State

62%
38%

23
21

✓

CAL −5.2

–

–

Final

Georgiavs#2Florida

15%
85%

17
41

✓

FLA −16.1

–

–

Final

Arkansas State@Louisville

56%
44%

13
21

✗

ARST −2.9

–

–

Final

Central Michigan@Boston College

40%
60%

10
31

✓

BC −3.6

–

–

Final

#23Miami (FL)@Wake Forest

63%
37%

28
27

✓

MIA −5.9

–

–

Final

Toledo@Miami (OH)

60%
40%

24
31

✗

TOL −4.4

–

–

Final

Iowa State@Texas A&M

46%
54%

10
35

✓

TA&M −1.0

–

–

Final

Duke@Virginia

36%
64%

28
17

✗

UVA −5.3

–

–

Final

Michigan@Illinois

68%
32%

13
38

✗

MICH −7.8

–

–

Final

Temple@NavyUpset

24%
76%

27
24

✗

NAVY −10.8

–

–

Final

Kansas@#14Texas Tech

30%
70%

21
42

✓

TTU −8.0

–

–

Final

Air Force@Colorado State

70%
30%

34
16

✓

AF −9.0

–

–

Final

UCLA@Oregon State

29%
71%

19
26

✓

ORST −8.4

–

–

Final

Middle Tennessee@Florida Atlantic

48%
52%

27
20

✗

FAU −0.4

–

–

Final

UNLV@#5TCU

2.3%
98%

0
41

✓

TCU −31.6

–

–

Final

Hawaii@Nevada

16%
84%

21
31

✓

NEV −15.4

–

–

Final

Western Kentucky@North Texas

22%
78%

49
68

✓

UNT −12.1

–

–

Final

#11Penn State@Northwestern

84%
16%

34
13

✓

PSU −16.4

–

–

Final

Louisiana Tech@Idaho

67%
33%

34
35

✗

LT −7.6

–

–

Final

Utah State@Fresno State

13%
87%

27
31

✓

FRES −17.4

–

–

Prime time 8 games

Final

Eastern Michigan@Arkansas

3.1%
97%

27
63

✓

ARK −29.6

–

–

Final

Mississippi State@Kentucky

33%
67%

31
24

✗

UK −6.6

–

–

Final

Kansas State@#3Oklahoma

5.8%
94%

30
42

✓

OU −24.8

–

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@Troy

19%
81%

21
42

✓

TROY −13.3

–

–

Final

New Mexico@San Diego State

23%
77%

20
23

✓

SDSU −11.4

–

–

Final

Washington State@Notre Dame

4.3%
96%

14
40

✓

ND −27.2

–

–

Final

#17Georgia Tech@Vanderbilt

79%
21%

56
31

✓

GT −13.3

–

–

Final

South Carolina@#25Tennessee

31%
69%

13
31

✓

TENN −7.6

–

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

West Virginia@USF

47%
53%

19
30

✓

USF −0.7

–

–

Sun, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Marshall@UCF

39%
61%

20
21

✓

UCF −3.9

–

–

Time TBD 5 games

Final

Tulane@#16LSU

1.2%
99%

0
42

✓

LSU −36.2

–

–

Final

Michigan State@Minnesota

52%
48%

34
42

✗

MSU −1.1

–

–

Final

#1Texas@#19Oklahoma State

75%
25%

41
14

✓

TEX −11.3

–

–

Final

Wyoming@#22Utah

7.8%
92%

10
22

✓

UTAH −22.3

–

–

Final

#7USC@#8Oregon

44%
56%

20
47

✓

ORE −2.0

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Oct 31 · 1:30 PM ET	Coastal Carolina at #15 Clemson	Clemson −33.2	98%