The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 64 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 76

Wilder than 76% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 14.6 expected

  • Biggest shockWashington over USC5.4% chance · won 16-13
  • Runner-upCentral Arkansas over Western Kentucky13% chance · won 28-7
  • Runner-upMarshall over Bowling Green19% chance · won 17-10

Upsets

Thu, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Georgia Tech@Miami (FL)
40%
60%
17
33
✓
MIA −3.5
–
–

Fri, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#6Boise State@Fresno State
78%
22%
51
34
✓
BOIS −12.2
–
–

Sat, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
Louisville@Kentucky
12%
88%
27
31
✓
UK −17.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Michigan
11%
89%
17
45
✓
MICH −18.5
–
–
Final
#11California@Minnesota
72%
28%
35
21
✓
CAL −9.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@North Carolina
28%
72%
17
31
✓
UNC −8.5
–
–
Final
Temple@#4Penn State
2.8%
97%
6
31
✓
PSU −29.6
–
–
Final
#25Boston College@ClemsonUpset
43%
57%
7
25
✓
CLEM −2.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Army
49%
51%
17
24
✓
BALL −0.2
–
–
Final
Duke@#19Kansas
11%
89%
16
44
✓
KU −18.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@PurdueUpset
24%
76%
28
21
✗
PUR −10.5
–
–
Final
#14Ohio State@Toledo
83%
17%
38
0
✓
OSU −15.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@#8Alabama
3.1%
97%
7
53
✓
ALA −28.7
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Wyoming@Colorado
33%
67%
0
24
✓
COLO −6.3
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#1Florida
10%
90%
13
23
✓
FLA −19.2
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Notre Dame
30%
70%
30
33
✓
ND −7.5
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Maryland
42%
58%
32
31
✗
MD −2.8
–
–
Final
#15Tulsa@#5Oklahoma
31%
69%
0
45
✓
OU −7.0
–
–
Final
#7Nebraska@#23Virginia Tech
56%
44%
15
16
✗
NEB −2.8
–
–
Final
#2USC@WashingtonUpset
95%
5.4%
13
16
✗
USC −25.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@AkronUpset
21%
79%
38
21
✗
AKR −11.8
–
–
Final
#18Utah@#21Oregon
43%
57%
24
31
✓
ORE −2.2
–
–
Final
Virginia@Southern Miss
18%
82%
34
37
✓
USM −13.5
–
–
Final
UAB@Troy
41%
59%
14
27
✓
TROY −3.1
–
–
Final
Arizona@Iowa
39%
61%
17
27
✓
IOWA −3.9
–
–
Final
Nevada@Colorado State
43%
57%
20
35
✓
CSU −2.1
–
–
Final
San Diego State@IdahoUpset
80%
20%
20
34
✗
SDSU −13.7
–
–
Final
FIU@Rutgers
17%
83%
15
23
✓
RUTG −14.5
–
–
Final
UConn@Baylor
44%
56%
30
22
✗
BAY −1.6
–
–
Final
SMU@Washington State
61%
39%
27
30
✗
SMU −4.7
–
–
Final
Navy@#22Pittsburgh
31%
69%
14
27
✓
PITT −7.0
–
–
Final
#17Cincinnati@Oregon State
55%
44%
28
18
✓
CIN −2.6
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
Louisiana@#24LSU
15%
85%
3
31
✓
LSU −15.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Syracuse
59%
41%
34
37
✗
NU −4.0
–
–
Final
Rice@#20Oklahoma State
8.8%
91%
24
41
✓
OKST −20.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Vanderbilt
29%
71%
15
3
✗
VAN −8.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@Texas A&M
18%
82%
30
38
✓
TA&M −13.6
–
–
Final
Florida State@#13BYUUpset
23%
77%
54
28
✗
BYU −11.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@MarshallUpset
81%
19%
10
17
✗
BGSU −13.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kent State
45%
55%
34
14
✗
KENT −1.4
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@South Carolina
15%
85%
16
38
✓
SC −15.4
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Western Michigan
18%
82%
26
48
✓
WMU −13.7
–
–
Final
Air Force@New Mexico
72%
28%
37
13
✓
AF −9.6
–
–
Final
Buffalo@UCF
55%
45%
17
23
✗
BUF −2.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Auburn
38%
62%
30
41
✓
AUB −4.1
–
–
Final
Georgia@Arkansas
47%
53%
52
41
✗
ARK −0.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
14%
86%
17
42
✓
STAN −16.5
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arizona State
14%
86%
14
38
✓
ASU −16.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@UCLA
31%
68%
9
23
✓
UCLA −6.9
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UNLV
29%
71%
33
34
✓
UNLV −8.1
–
–

Sun, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
69%
31%
38
12
✓
UTEP −8.1
–
–
Final
#9Texas Tech@#3Texas
26%
74%
24
34
✓
TEX −9.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at USF USF −47.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET Central Arkansas at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −17.1 87%
Sat, Sep 19 · 2:00 PM ET Furman at #10 Missouri Missouri −42.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ET SE Louisiana at #16 Ole Miss Ole Miss −45.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 6:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at NC State NC State −24.5 94%
Sat, Sep 19 · 6:30 PM ET Elon at Wake Forest Wake Forest −30.6 98%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET Cal Poly at Ohio Ohio −21.6 92%
Sun, Sep 20 · TBD UT Martin at Memphis Memphis −28.4 97%
Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET Wofford at Wisconsin Wisconsin −37.5 99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET Alcorn State at Central Michigan Central Michigan −46.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −36.8 99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET Texas State at #12 TCU TCU −25.4 95%