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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 2009

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 78 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 95

Wilder than 95% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 15.5 expected

  • Biggest shockWilliam & Mary over Virginia2.0% chance · won 26-14
  • Runner-upVillanova over Temple2.7% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upRichmond over Duke2.9% chance · won 24-16

Upsets

Thu, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 4 games

Final
South Carolina@NC State
48%
52%
7
3
✗
NCSU −0.1
–
–
Final
Troy@Bowling Green
47%
53%
14
31
✓
BGSU −0.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@Ball StateUpset
11%
89%
20
10
✗
BALL −18.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@#12Utah
14%
86%
17
35
✓
UTAH −16.4
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#8Oregon@#11Boise State
42%
58%
8
19
✓
BOIS −2.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 6 games

Final
Minnesota@Syracuse
53%
47%
23
20
✓
MINN −1.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Miami (OH)
66%
34%
42
0
✓
UK −6.8
–
–
Final
Navy@#9Ohio State
25%
75%
27
31
✓
OSU −9.9
–
–
Final
Akron@#5Penn State
13%
87%
7
31
✓
PSU −16.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Purdue
27%
73%
31
52
✓
PUR −9.1
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Tennessee
18%
82%
7
63
✓
TENN −13.5
–
–

Afternoon 9 games

Final
San Jose State@#3USC
6.0%
94%
3
56
✓
USC −23.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@Notre Dame
38%
62%
0
35
✓
ND −4.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Michigan
41%
59%
7
31
✓
MICH −3.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@Wake Forest
33%
67%
24
21
✗
WAKE −6.1
–
–
Final
#16Georgia@#14Oklahoma State
39%
61%
10
24
✓
OKST −3.9
–
–
Final
#13MissourivsIllinois
65%
35%
37
9
✓
MIZ −6.3
–
–
Final
Rice@UAB
57%
43%
24
44
✗
RICE −3.3
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Clemson
24%
76%
14
37
✓
CLEM −10.6
–
–
Final
Stanford@Washington State
66%
34%
39
13
✓
STAN −6.8
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@Auburn
31%
68%
13
37
✓
AUB −6.9
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Nebraska
24%
76%
3
49
✓
NEB −10.5
–
–
Final
UConn@Ohio
57%
43%
23
16
✓
CONN −3.2
–
–
Final
BYUvs#2OklahomaUpset
25%
75%
14
13
✗
OU −10.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Texas A&M
46%
54%
6
41
✓
TA&M −1.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#4Texas
6.1%
94%
20
59
✓
TEX −23.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Wisconsin
33%
67%
20
28
✓
WIS −6.1
–
–
Final
Army@Eastern Michigan
44%
56%
27
14
✗
EMU −2.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UCLA
26%
74%
14
33
✓
UCLA −9.3
–
–
Final
Buffalo@UTEP
46%
54%
23
17
✗
UTEP −0.9
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Central Michigan@#17Arizona
22%
78%
6
19
✓
ARIZ −11.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@#15California
28%
72%
13
52
✓
CAL −8.6
–
–
Final
#21LSU@Washington
70%
30%
31
23
✓
LSU −8.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#23Tulsa@Tulane
74%
26%
37
13
✓
TLSA −10.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#22Ole Miss@Memphis
62%
38%
45
14
✓
MISS −5.4
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Colorado State@Colorado
41%
59%
23
17
✗
COLO −3.1
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Idaho@New Mexico StateUpset
7.4%
93%
21
6
✗
NMSU −22.1
–
–
Final
#10AlabamavsVirginia Tech
60%
40%
34
24
✓
ALA −4.2
–
–

Mon, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Cincinnati@Rutgers
39%
61%
47
15
✗
RUTG −3.8
–
–

Tue, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Miami (FL)@#25Florida StateUpset
38%
62%
38
34
✗
FSU −4.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Fri, Sep 4 · TBD North Dakota State at Iowa State North Dakota State −2.9 56%
Fri, Sep 4 · TBD Eastern Kentucky at Indiana Indiana −31.9 98%
Thu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Villanova at Temple Temple −29.8 97%
Thu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Coastal Carolina at Kent State Kent State −9.4 74%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET Missouri State at Arkansas Arkansas −13.6 82%
Sat, Sep 5 · 10:00 PM ET Idaho State at Arizona State Arizona State −39.2 99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at #1 Florida Florida −47.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM ET Wofford at #18 USF USF −33.2 98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −15.8 85%
Sat, Sep 5 · 1:05 AM ET Central Arkansas vs Hawaii Hawaii −25.1 95%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET Towson at Northwestern Northwestern −28.8 97%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM ET Indiana State at Louisville Louisville −40.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 2:00 PM ET Northeastern at Boston College Boston College −34.2 99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET Montana State at Michigan State Michigan State −36.4 99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET Richmond at Duke Duke −29.3 97%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET Appalachian State at East Carolina East Carolina −6.5 68%
Sat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM ET The Citadel at North Carolina North Carolina −33.4 98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 2:30 PM ET Portland State at #19 Oregon State Oregon State −42.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 1:00 PM ET Youngstown State at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −35.4 99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM ET Western Carolina at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −38.0 99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State vs Houston Houston −34.9 99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM ET William & Mary at Virginia Virginia −31.8 98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 4:30 PM ET Southern Illinois at Marshall Marshall −23.8 94%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET Liberty vs West Virginia West Virginia −20.0 91%
Sat, Sep 5 · 10:00 PM ET UC Davis at Fresno State Fresno State −27.6 96%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET Southern at Louisiana Louisiana −26.5 96%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET Jackson State at Mississippi State Mississippi State −21.9 92%
Sat, Sep 5 · 2:00 PM ET Nicholls at Air Force Air Force −35.3 99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:05 PM ET Mississippi Valley State at Arkansas State Arkansas State −22.0 92%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM ET Samford at UCF UCF −32.5 98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:05 PM ET Northern Iowa at #20 Iowa Iowa −34.8 99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET Northern Colorado at #24 Kansas Kansas −37.1 99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:10 PM ET UMass at Kansas State Kansas State −2.5 58%
Sat, Sep 5 · 10:00 PM ET Sacramento State vs UNLV UNLV −5.6 65%
Sun, Sep 6 · TBD Stephen F. Austin at SMU SMU −20.2 91%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET Alcorn State at Southern Miss Southern Miss −38.5 99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET North Dakota at #7 Texas Tech Texas Tech −33.6 98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:00 PM ET Weber State at Wyoming Wyoming −27.8 96%